On the other hand…well there is no other hand.  That’s pretty much what you’ve got.  Rachel Alexandra is a 3 year old filly who can run a 116 Beyer Speed Figure against top competition in a fairly run race and a 108-11 BSF when she encounters difficult trip and pace scenarios.

So where does that leave us?  In my last post I talked about how I loved speed figures because they provide us with some means of comparing horses in a historical sense.  Here are Rachel Alexandra’s last several Beyers:

Woodward – 109
Haskell – 116
Mother Goose – 111
Preakness – 108
Kentucky Oaks – 108

For comparative purposes here are some other recent 3 yo filly champs and their top Beyers during their 3 yo filly season:

2008 Proud Spell – Tops of 101, 99, 99, 97
2007 Rags to Riches – Tops of 107, 104, 98, 96
2006 Wait A While -Her accomplishments came on turf.  Dirt top of 90
2005 Smuggler - Tops of 98, 94, 93, 92 in season that ended in July.
2004 Ashado – Tops of 106, 103, 103, 102
2003 Bird Town -Tops of 101, 100, 100, 100
2002 Farda Amiga -Tops of 103, 103, 100, 95

Clearly Rachel Alexandra is FAST.  Much faster than most recent 3 year old filly champs.  When she encountered difficult pace scenarios in the Preakness & Woodward she still ran faster than any recent 3 yo filly champ ran in their best effort, and under normal circumstances she was 10-15 points superior.

So how does she compare to some of the greats?  Well on the positive side, 116 is about as fast as it gets.  On the negative side, there are quite a few who have run figures in that range.  Here are a few examples:

Lakeway ran a 117 winning the Hollywood Oaks.

Surfside ran a 116 winning the Clark (alebit much later in the season)

Silverbulletday ran a 115 in the Alabama – to go along with 109-107-108 in the Black Eyed Susan, Kentucky Oaks, & Ashland.

Go For Wand:

Beldame – 117
Maskette – 105
Alabama – 111
Test – 114
Mother Goose – 104

Then there’s Xtra Heat who couldn’t do it going long, but ran sprint figures of 120, 119, 117 as a 3 yo filly.

Very Subtle ran a 121 when she won the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Sprint over Groovy as a 3 year old filly.

Miesque ran a 119 when she won the  1987 Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile as a 3 yo filly.

I also seem to recall Mantistique running a 115 type number as a 3 yo filly at Hollywood but I have no record of it.  Winning Colors ran a similar number winning the Santa Anita Derby if memory serves, but I have no record of that either.  Winning Colors also ran a 115 in defeat losing to Personal Ensign in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

As far as older fillies & mares, clearly they have run faster due to maturity, but for comparative purposes the 2 fastest Breeders’ Cup Distaff’s on record belong to Princess Rooney (120) and Inside Information (119).  The great Lady’s Secret ran a 113 winning the BC Distaff but put up figures of 120 (Woodward), 119 (Ruffian), 118 (Whitney), and 116 (Maskette) in 1986.

“Great” is a term that is thrown around all too easily these days, but what’s the correct definition?  I define greatness as the intersection between extraordinary ability/talent and extraordinary accomplishments.  Many horses have one of the two, but few have both.  Rachel Alexandra displayed both in her 3 yo filly season.  Her 3 yo filly season was as accomplished as any by a 3 year old filly in recent memory.  But others are accomplished too which is where the figure comparison comes into play.

Is Rachel Alexandra substantially more talented than horses like Ruffian, Go For Wand, Silverbulletday and Winning Colors?  Definitely not.  They’re all in the same ballpark and would likely have traded wins with each other had they regularly competed against each other.  But her accomplishments as a 3 year old filly meet or exceed what any single one of them did over the course of a season.

In the final tally you have a horse who was as fast as any 3 year old filly in history and accomplished as much or more than any 3 yo filly in history.   In a single race I’m not so sure she could beat a handful of history’s top fillies, but when her ability is considered collectively with her accomplishments there’s no doubt she’s great and you’d be hard-pressed to say that any single 3 yo filly was better in a combined analysis – thereby making Rachel Alexandra the best 3 year old filly ever!

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Rachel Alexandra just concluded the most ambitious, aggressive, and challenging campaign that a top 3 year old filly has seen in this country in many years.  Top fillies and mares have repeatedly faced colts in the past (See Lady’s Secret, Winning Colors, Serena’s Song et al.) but this is a different time and culture.  Nowadays horses generally take the path of least resistance.  That’s certainly been the case with Zenyatta…and then some!  Zenyatta had a fabulous 2008.  She was undefeated, brilliant and breathtaking with her sweeping move to blow by each field at will.  She concluded with a easy win in the BC DISTAFF (That’s what it is and always will be).  She could have retired with a championship and a place in history as a very good mare.

Instead she returned in 2009 and with that came a chance to establish a place among the elite mares in history.  She had the opportunity to step outside the female ranks and shoot for a win or two in a major handicap race vs males.  She could have shipped and won some of the important divisional races in NY – while simultaneously establishing that she was an elite mare on dirt as well.  She could have tried the grass.  She could have done many exciting things to put her talent on display and show just where she belongs from a historical perspective.   Now here we are on October 1st and despite being in training since the spring, Zenyatta has raced just 3 times and done nothing at all outside her comfort zone.  To date her campaign falls well short of even her 2008 season where she at least shipped to Oaklawn for the Apple Blossom and made 7 starts.

With so many ways to do something special this year, for some inexplicable reason Zenyatta’s connections have chosen the most unexciting and least challenging schedule possible this year.  They cite the fact that the Breeders’ Cup is supposed to determine year-end championships but she has already been a champion in her division – this is about becoming extraordinary, not pursuing the ordinary.  The Breeders’ Cup explanation is their rationale for not running against Rachel Alexandra – whose connections likely would have taken Rachel to any dirt track in America to face Zenyatta – which comes across as nothing more than a lame excuse to avoid a showdown with a horse she likely would have lost to and who has certainly surpassed her in rank and reputation.  This also in no way addresses why she couldn’t have faced males in races like the Pacific Classic or Hollywood Gold Cup.  Heck, even her stablemate who was running on the same schedule as Zenyatta was entered against males in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  Neither does it address why she couldn’t ship outside California or run a race of two on dirt to diversify her resume and legacy.  When reigning horse of the year Curlin retured for a 2008 campaign last year, his connections took him to Dubai, Kentucky, tried him on grass, won major races in New York and concluded in California.  Looking back at a champion whose unbeaten record Zenyatta is presently targeting, Personal Ensign faced males in the Whitney and twice beat a Kentucky Derby winning filly to conclude her career.    And here is Zenyatta – facing and beating an extraordinarily weak group of older mares in California time after time while her connections apparently have no desire to test her further.

Certainly Zenyatta’s connections are free to manage their horse any way they’d like, but should she conclude her career with 2 more wins to break Personal Ensign’s record, history will surely take into account how she was managed.  If their goal was to simply ensure that Zenyatta retired undefeated, well then they are indeed doing a masterful job of managing her.  But you can’t have it both ways.  Taking the path of least resistance by avoiding challenges and never venturing outside her comfort zone – particularly in the face of such an aggressive and exciting campaign from Rachel Alexandra by contrast – will surely prevent Zenyatta from ranking alongside the all-time greats of the sport.  She may indeed have that level of talent, but her connections have done an incredible disservice to her reputation and legacy by failing to allow her to demonstrate it on the track.

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