• Santa Anita – Wow!  For those of you who go there routinely I guess this goes without saying, but WOW (did I say that already?!)…what a view!  Those mountains make for a breathtaking backdrop.

Wow!

• Pro-Ride – Is there any doubt at this point that this is a completely separate surface that bears no resemblance to dirt, plays more like turf, and is extremely difficult to navigate for dirt horses with no past turf or synthetic experience?  When you see consistent horses with strong dirt form completely fail to fire time after time that’s telling you something.  You know the facts by now – not a single dirt horse won or even ran well.  Consistent dirt horses like Music Note, Sara Louise, Summer Bird, D’Funnybone, Devil May Care etc etc all failed to display anywhere near their established form over this track.  Bottom line – these races mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things when it comes to dirt horses.  For all intents and purposes you need to treat them the same way you’d treat a grass race for these horses.  America is built around dirt racing so it’s just sad to see us run prominent and championship races on an entirely different surface that holds no historical value or relative significance.  In addition, you can now view some of the performances from last year (ie – Curlin) through an even more colored lense and realize those races are dead throwouts.

What is this stuff?

This really isn't my living room carpet!

• Marathon – If not for the fact that some of these horses were coming from Europe you’d otherwise be hard-pressed to distinguish this race from the Gallant Fox Handicap in December at Aqueduct.  Just silly.

• Juvenile Filllies Turf – Why?  Surprised no one closed into pretty fast fractions.  Nice effort by Rose Catherine stretching out off that sensational debut in a turf sprint at Belmont.

• Juvenile Fillies – Zzzzzzz.  Lots of horses in the picture.  No one all that impressive.  Not sure this race means much in the grand scheme of things except to the winners.  Tough trip for Biofuel (who I bet of course) going 100 wide and getting sideswiped as she was making her move…and still closing well for 4th.

• F&M Turf – Midday figured better than these if Forever Together didn’t return to peak form.  Forever Together didn’t and Midday was.

• F&M Sprint – Some people must be looking at an $8.80 payoff for 7-for-7 on synthetics Informed Decision and thinking “Wow…what an easy game” but this race was as much about pace as anything else.  The race was essentially over after the first quarter as  Informed Decision sat just off a slow 23:1 quarter while probably-best Ventura attempted to close from the back of the pack.  Sara Louise had nothing on the pro-ride.

Informed Decision

• DISTAFF(!) – Not sure if Careless Jewel was just entirely rank or another with non Pro-Ride/Keeneland type synthetic experience (Woodbine is a bit of a different surface than those) who also didn’t handle the surface.  Either way, the Rachel Alexandra comparisons should stop for a while.  She should still make for a nice 4 yo if they stick to the dirt.  Obviously this was one that fell apart from the fast pace as Life Is Sweet came from the back to blow by the field.  Seeing a potent finisher like Music Note lack a strong closing punch again validates the stark  contrast in the surface.

• Juvenile Turf – Whatever.  Congrats to the connections I guess.

• Turf Sprint – Was hoping for chaos again but California Flag looked best if he could avoid an early duel.  Able to get away with a slow 21:2 quarter (well slow compared to last year’s 20:3 duel) he cruised home.

• Sprint – Just bet the fastest last race Beyer.  Easy game, right?!  Zensational got off a bit slow and couldn’t make the lead and showed little thereafter so obviously they decided to rest on their laurels and retire him.  After all what’s left to prove after you decisively beat Talking to MomRoo?  Fatal Bullet threw in his first synthetic clunker after everything seemed to set up well for him.  Champion Sprinter for $100, Alex?

• Juvenile – I’ll leave out the fact that I was alive with 7 of these in the Pick-4 (including Piscitelli for 90k who led through slow fractions and then re-rallied in midstretch) and missed it when I picked the wrong Euros to be my “A’s” (the Sprint eliminated my B’s in this race – which Vale of York was) and just say that obviously Lookin At Lucky lost nothing in defeat here.  I’m sure this race has some Santa Anita Derby or San Felipe  implications or something…but not much else.

• Turf Mile – Another pretty impressive performance by Goldikova who was obviously back on her “A” game.  Clearly one of the all-time good turf fillies, however I still wouldn’t put her near Miesque who ran faster, had a better career overall, and beat significantly better fields in her back-to-back triumphs.    Check out the fact that Miesque ran exclusively against males in the final EIGHT starts of her career – compiling a record of 6 wins and 2 seconds against a very deep and talented group (both in Europe & the US).

• Dirt Mile – Wide open race if Mastercraftsman didn’t fire.  Furthest Land obviously ran back to his last race.  Ridiculous to run this race in the heart of the Saturday card.  In other news, the “Dirt Mile” remains on target to actually be run at 1 Mile on the dirt for the first time next year.

• Turf – Pretty uninteresting race.  Amazing they can only get 7 horses (and just 3 from the US) to run for 3 Million Dollars on the grass.  Conduit wasn’t nearly as good this year as he was last year but it was still enough to get the job done.  Precious Passion is definitely a cool horse who has obviously improved quite a bit and become way more consistent.  It’s rare to see a horse do what he does on the turf so he’s definitely fun to watch.

The Classic!

Zenyatta

• Classic – Well Zenyatta certainly surprised me.  I didn’t expect her to win going in and she certainly looked beaten throughout most of the race but she managed to blow by the field and make history.  The moment gave you goosebumps and the cheering from the crowd reminded me of a playoff game atmosphere after a game-typing basket or Home Run which is remarkable to see at a racetrack.  Nevertheless my analytical side can’t help but view this effort in a slightly different context.  At the end of the day Zenyatta beat a field of primarily turf horses on a surface that almost none of them had run their best efforts over (Gio Ponti’s best efforts are on grass, Twice Over’s also on grass, & Summer Bird’s on dirt).  If Summer Bird faced Gio Ponti and Twice Over going 10 furlongs on the dirt, would you still bet him to run last of the 3?  Clearly Zenyatta is the queen of synthetics but I just can’t treat that the same way that I’d treat a horse who accomplished the same thing on dirt.  It’s a niche surface and it’s less significant than dirt.  Zenyatta very well might be as good on dirt but unfortunately it doesn’t look like we’ll ever get the chance to find out.

I obviously have a lot more to say about Zenyatta and the Classic and I plan to cover Zenyatta and why Rachel Alexandra is still Horse of the Year in separate posts.  I’ll also give some thoughts on the 2009 Eclipse Award picture later in the week as well.

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

I’ve written extensively about the Breeders’ Cup as it pertains to Horse of the Year, Breeders’ Cup Beyer Speed Figures and  Fixing the Breeders’ Cup, but I’ve purposely been rather silent about this year’s Breeders’ Cup from a handicapping point of view because my only real opinion is that most of these races are incredibly wide-open and most favorites and short-priced horses are quite vulnerable. The synthetic aspect really complicates things from a handicapping perspective, but it makes them awfully appealing from a betting perspective.

How will the dirt horses do 1st time on synthetic? How will the turf horses do making their debuts on pro-ride…will their form carry over? Are speed figures really less relevant on synthetics to the extent that a slower horse with a strong finishing kick can beat a faster horse? Interesting questions and they all present opportunities for value. Should these races be chalky I don’t envision myself having a very good weekend.

Here are some very quick thoughts:

Marathon: What a ridiculous race.  Calling this a Breeders’ Cup race dilutes the name.  With that said, I’d probably key around Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron & Gangbuster while covering Muhnnak, Nite Light, Cloudy’s Knight, & Eldaffer to a smaller degree.

Juvenile Turf Fillies - I’ll be hoping for a bomb here as I could make a case for 12 of the 14, however House of Grace is the one I probably prefer most.

Juvenile Fillies – Looks wide open to me and again I’m spreading and hoping to catch a big price.  Blind Luck, Beautician, Connie & Mike, She Be Wild, Negligee, Always a Princess, and maybe Biofuel.  I’ll use Connie and Michael the heaviest from a defensive perspective as she seems the most talented.

F&M Turf – Forever Together still intrigues me and 10 furlongs and a firm turf could offer her the right conditions to fire again.  Otherwise most of the rest look pretty close aside from Midday who might be better than these.  Not a lot of pace so I’m curious to see if someone tries to steal it.  Maram is another who intrigues me.  She’s slower than several strong closers like Pure Clan & Magical Fantasy but she’s a rare one who seems like she’ll be more effective with added distance and would have a more potent kick going longer.  Not a throwout at all.

F&M Sprint – Ventura is probably better than these.  Curious to see how Sara Louise handles pro-ride bc she’s as good as any if she does and obviously Informed Decision is at her best going 7F on synthetics.

Ladies Classic – D-I-S-T-A-F-F!  I actually think this race is pretty wide open.  I’m not in love with Careless Jewel who has been meeting very soft fields and doesn’t have pro-ride/Keeneland type of experience.  Music Note ran a 98 Beyer on pro-ride last year and is clearly faster this year, however I don’t love the fact that her closing kick seemed less potent on pro-ride for some reason.  Torn on her.  Mushka, Proviso, Life Is Sweet & Rainbow View are also usable.  Yes that’s almost everyone but that’s what A-B-C tickets are for.

Juvenile Turf – Viscount Nelson, Codoy, Pounced, Gallant Gent, King Ledley, Becky’s Kitten, Interactif, Buzzword, Bridgetown, Awesome Act.  Bomb please!

Turf Sprint – I loved this race last year by settling on Storm Treasure to close into what I knew would be an insane pace and used him in the money in triples and caught a bomb winning with Desert Code.  There doesn’t appear to be quite as much speed this year but with so much potential for chaos in a race like this I can’t play California Flag.  If he doesn;t run his best and Diamondrella doesnt get an insane pace to run into, hopefully something wacky can happen again.

Sprint – I kinda like Fatal Bullet.  Obviously he’s a different horse on synthetics and I think he can sit just off Zensational and run at him in the stretch.  I’d love to play heavily against Zensational who has benefited from soft trips/pace scenarios without running especially fast, but it’s a pretty weak field and other than Fatal Bullet there’s not a ton of speed to run with him and he’s clearly better capable of firing a big fig at 6F than 7F.

Juvenile – If Looking At Lucky wins, I lose.  He’s a nice horse and it wouldn’t stun me if he wins but from a value perspective he’s a horrible play.  There are a number of others who are as fast, faster, or moving forward and intriguing.  Noble’s Promise (might not love this distance – by Cuvee – even though he ran a figure good enough to win at same distance last out), D’Funnybone (if he handles pro-ride), Pulsion (moving forward and by Include which indicates he should continue to develop with time and distance), Eskendereya (don’t love Pletcher on pro-ride but this one is fast and ran well on turf already), Aikenite (big fig at Keeneland on synths and moving forward), + you have Euros with turf form.

Mile – I’ll use but try to beat Goldiskova who has been in and out this year and was more visually impressive than fast in winning last year (albeit with a pretty powerful closing kick).  I could name a ton of horses I’ll be using here but suffice to say I’ll be going pretty deep and spreading and hoping for a price.

Dirt Mile – Pretty funny that in 3 years the “Dirt Mile” has never actually been run at a mile on the dirt.  Speaks volumes about the current absurdity that is the Breeders’ Cup.  You have to like Mastercraftsman.  Beyond that it looks pretty wide open to me.

Turf – No genius ideas here…I think Conduit is a pretty strong candidate to repeat.   Beyond that I can really only make a case for Dar Re Mi, Spanish Moon & Precious Passion.

Classic – Pretend you had been out of racing for 2 years and you called me up and said “I see it’s Breeders’ Cup day…tell me about the favorite for the Classic?”  And I replied “Well…it’s a mare who is coming off Beyers of 97 and 99 in her last 2 races, beat the longest priced horse in the morning line for the Distaff by a length in her last race and beat an allowance type horse by a head in her race before that – AND has never been 1 1/4 miles before and has only run 1 1/8 once this year in June.  Does that sound like enough of  a story to bring you back into action?

Look, Zenyatta is wonderfully talented horse and the source of one of the most complex evaluations of a “great” in history – but she is HORRIBLE value in this race.  This race should serve as a fascinating test for the question of how relevant are speed figures/performance figures on pro-ride and is this a rare example of a horse who literally does just what it takes to win?  If you take 2-1 or less to find out then you’re betting with your heart and not your head.  From a value perspective, there’s tons here.  I think Richard’s Kid looks like a great play to at least hit the board (which in and of itself speaks to the absurdity of this Breeders’ Cup) and perhaps create some big triples if Zenyatta’s out of the money.  I also like Colonel John, Einstein, & the Euros (who will probably win but won’t offer nearly as much value this time around).  Not sure what to do with Gio Ponti who wasn’t very fast on pro-ride in the winter but seems to have improved since then.  Also fascinating to see what happens with Quality Road & Summer Bird who are both immensely talented and pretty consistent dirt horses.  On dirt they would clearly be the 2 favorites.  Should neither run well it will make for a pretty glaring example of the differences between dirt form and pro-ride form – particularly in the case of horses without previous experience on the surface or on grass.

I wrote more than I though there but there’s plenty of time to kill on this 5 1/2 hour flight – and anything to distract me from these wildly uncomfortable seats on American Airlines.

My plan is to focus on Pick 4′s and spread pretty deeply using the standard A-B-C-X ticket style and swing for the fences.  I love these types of days because with the big fields and public money, a bomb or two and favorites losing can produce 50k-100k pick-4 payoffs.  Obviously you need to make fairly large investments, but the potential rewards are enormous on Breeders’ Cup day for those with a big enough bankroll – and this year even more than normal because of all the uncertainties associated with running on pro-ride.  As a fan, I detest it.  As a bettor, I like it!

Good luck to all and may the horse be with you!

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

Beldame – 6 weeks ago this race was being offered as a potential stage for a Rachel-Zenyatta meeting with the possibility of Icon Project & Careless Jewel being part of the field as well.  Instead it turned into a workout for Music Note with only Unbridled Belle offering any type of G1 form in opposition.  Unbridled Belle got loose on a pretty easy lead, but Music Note was still able to pass her and win in hand, running a very legit figure.

Music Note is a horse that I feel like we never really got to see just how good she is.  She got very good very quickly last year and showed an ability to finish with extremely strong final quarters.  She wasn’t sensationally fast, but as an AP Indy she figured to keep maturing.  Plus, several of her races were little more than public workouts where she simply laid over the field and barely had to run at all.  She ran well in the BC against Zenyatta but the race is a toss for me since it was on synthetics.  Music Note didn’t return until the middle of this year – where she ran inexplicably awful.  Following another small layoff she came back to run huge – defeating Indian Blessing in the 7F Ballerina.   Should she conclude her career with yesterday’s pretty effortless win and another BC race on synthetics we will really not have had the chance to see her truly strut her stuff in a stakes race going a route on the dirt in quite a long time.   Music Note clearly has gotten faster and better at 4 – as her breeding indicated was likely – so I’m definitely disappointed to not get a real season out of her.  I think it’s possible that she may have been able to take that leap and be “special” (ie – The type of horse who can blow a good field away with a powerful closing kick and run 110-type Beyer figures) but due to a combination of circumstances and the BC’s ridiculous decision to run on synthetics, she’ll likely just go down as another in a long line of “what-ifs.”

Vosburgh – 400k for a prestigious Grade 1 sprint on dirt and just 4 horses show up?!  Hard to figure.  The Forego had a full field a few weeks ago.  You would have made 12k just for walking around the track and finishing 5th!  Talented bunch at least.  It’s hard not to love Fabulous Strike.  He’s extremely fast and he’s been on the scene for several years.  I feel like yesterday’s might be the first sign that age is catching up with him.  Watching him get a perfect trip sitting off Go Go Shoot, going by at will, and opening up a couple lengths in stretch, it was tough to imagine that Kodiak Kowboy would be able to mow him down.  The last time that happened (Carter), Fabulous Strike dueled through an insane 1/2 and had to negotiate an extra furlong.  Yesterday he looked like he’d win easily, but surprisingly Kodiak Kowboy ran him down.

Time to give Munnings a rest.  He looked like he might be a sensational sprinter but since his attempted stretch out in the Haskell he clearly isn’t the same animal anymore.

Flower Bowl – I wrote yesterday about Queen of Hearts so it was definitely exciting to see her run a good 3rd.  This was a tough race and my only thought was that Pure Clan would be around.  I didn’t like Dynaforce much who, despite loving a soft turf, doesn’t appear to be the same filly as she was last year.   In the Beverly D she got a perfect trip sitting close to a very slow pace and still didn’t run nearly as well as she had last year.  I got lucky when longshots ran 2nd and 3rd to Pure Clan to make for a nice super, but a look at the fractions over the ridiculously soft turf tells you all you need to know about this race.

Turf Classic – My friend asked if there was any shot that the favorites could be beaten in this race.  I replied “the only real chance is if Musketier steals the race on the front end since there isn’t much speed and his best races aren’t too far off Gio Ponti’s.”  So what happens?  Interpretation, who has never sniffed the lead (and rarely the winner’s circle for that matter) in his long career, goes to lead and has enough left to put away Gio Ponti in the stretch.  I didn’t play Musketier strongly, but this is why racing is maddening sometimes.  The trip that Interpretation got was exactly what Musketier should have been doing.  I can only theorize that his connections decided to take back because he faded so badly last time – but that’s because he dueled through insane fractions in the Sword Dancer.  His prior 2 efforts on the lead both produced solid efforts (100-102 Beyers and a G3 win and a second to Gio Ponti).  For them to sit lengths off a confirmed closer in Interpretation in a race where the early leader essentially goes wire to wire is simply poor strategy.  As for Gio Ponti, there were questions about his ability to get 12 furlongs going in.  Hard to put too much stock in a race like this given the conditions, but the fact that he went by Interpretation and couldn’t put him away is definitely a black mark against him regardless of circumstances.

Some interesting stats on the great Interpretation (who I actually like since I’ve used him successfully many times in the 2nd and 3rd slots).

• Off the board in all 6 prior starts this year
  
• His last win came on Sept 15, 2007 at Philadelphia Park – with 17 straight losses in between
• That race snapped a 1-year and 10-race losing streak as well
• Couldn’t finish in the top half of a 6-horse field at Philadelphia Park last time out

I think it’s safe to say that Gio Ponti’s longshot Horse of the Year chances just evaporated!

Jockey Club Gold Cup – Summer Bird is developing into a very nice horse.  Nice to see Quality Road return to his spring form.   It’s too bad he was rushed into the Travers without proper foundation.  It would have been very interesting to see how good he would have gotten if he had progressed normally rather than going straight from 6.5F to 10F.  At this point it will take a 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic win by Mine That Bird to deny Summer Bird the 3 yo title.  Given what has been said about Summer Bird’s poor training over synthetics in the spring, I’d pass the BC Classic with him and just prepare him for an early start to his 4 yo campaign.  He’ll win the title anyway unless Mine That Bird sometime pulls off a Classic win – and right now his stock is as high as ever.  Why risk it on a surface he purportedly doesn’t like?

I ‘d love to see Quality Road come back in the Cigar Mile and then have a proper 4 year old season where he’s not playing catch-up.

Macho Again reverted to previous form without an advantageous pace setup like he received in his prior 2 starts.

Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?