Super Saver ran a pretty ordinary race in his debut in the Tampa Bay Derby when he wasn’t cranked up and then followed with a decent but umimpressive 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.  Set for his best, he moved forward to win the Derby running a 104 BSF.  He earned it under favorable circumstances, but why won’t he repeat that figure in the Preakness?  He should find himself on or near the lead in a race with little speed.  The Derby represented only a small forward move and from a pattern perspective he certainly figures to run a similar effort again and by all reports he’s doing very well since his Derby effort.  So if he runs in the 102-105 range who can beat him?  The only horse I can make a case for is Caracortado who is going synth to dirt with some decent efforts in California and a win on dirt in his debut.

I suppose Lookin At Lucky is an obvious horse off his trouble-filled trip in the Derby but I’m starting to wonder just how good this horse really is.  He’s never run all that fast, seems to always find trouble, and is a question mark to me at longer distances.  Plus he’ll be no value.

Bottom line:  I see little reason why Super Saver won’t run a similar figure as he did in the Derby and if he does (no matter how slow it is by historical standards) he’ll be tough to beat.  Throw in his tactical advantage and he’s a nice price at 9/5.   I’ll be rooting for Caracortado as I’m alive for a nice double with him.  Yawanna Twist and Aikenite are the next 2 that I’ll use.   It would certainly be a shame to see a horse like Super Saver going for a shot at the crown considering he wouldn’t finish in the top half of the Derby field in some years, but this is a betting game and he’s value in the Preakness.  Sometimes it just doesn’t pay to be a wiseguy!

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This year finds us with almost the entire field having recorded a last figure within a length or two of each other, and a pace scenario that figures to make for a lot of easy eliminations.  It should be a recipe for big score but I find myself confused.  Looking at Lucky is no faster than a dozen other horses in the race and he’s coming off a performance that’s way too slow to contend, but he had a legitimate excuse in his last and he’s the horse who, gun to my head, I believe has the best chance to hit the board given his ability and running style.  What to do, what to do?

It doesn’t take a master’s in handicapping to look at the Racing Form and conclude that there will be  a pace meltdown in the Derby, but as much as I’d like to be cute, I can’t see any other plausible scenario.  There’s just too many horses with speed and no sign they can rate or have the stamina to last.  To me this race comes down to a group are really the only ones I can see finishing in the top 2 spots:

Looking At Lucky – No value whatsoever, but most likely to run his race

Ice Box – 50% he’s improving/maturing and ready to move forward again and run a winning race – especially given the race shape – and 50% he just exploded in the Florida Derby due to circumstances and isn’t really a strong closer or a 100+ Beyer horse at this stage.  Note he wasn’t finishing all that well in several of his earlier races.

Super Saver – Will be very tough IF he can rate a little.  Wasn’t cranked up at Tampa and then moved forward in Arkansas.  Could be sitting on a BIG one here especially if he can sit behind the likely speed duel.

Stately Victor – My intention was to make him an obvious toss but he could just be an improving horse and he’ll obviously get the trip.  His dirt races were similar to his grass races previously so he might just be forging forward as much as he may have just loved synthetics.  A definite use for me at a big price.

Devil May Care – No clue what to do with this horse.  She’s actually as fast as anyone based on her last and gets the right setup, but even with excuses she’s run too many mediocre races to feel confident about and her last was under favorable conditions.   A must-use though.

Mission Impazible – Looks like he’s moving forward…and he can rate a little, but I’m not sure if he’s good enough.  A use.

Awesome Act – I’m kinda indifferent on this horse.  He had trouble last time but he’s lost ground in the stretch in both of his last 2 and the Gotham wasn’t a strong race.  He’s easy to make a case for but I’m just not convinced he’s any kind of star.

Others I’ll use a bit on the bottom of the ticket:

Dean’s Kitten, Make Music For Me, Conveyance, Dublin, Sidney’s Candy

So basically I’m looking for some combo of the top 7 to finish 1-2 with something wacky and chaotic to happen underneath for some boxcar payoffs.  I’ll use Looking At Lucky a bit extra as a defensive measure.

I’m heading to Louisville for the 2010 Kentucky Derby – my first in-person Derby.  Best of luck to all.

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2 Year Old Colt – I don’t sense any groundswell of support for Vale of York getting it off a victory at 30-1 and Lookin At Lucky lost little in defeat after just missing while breaking from Post 13.  With 4 wins and a second in 5 starts including wins in the Del Mar Futurity & Norfolk, Lookin At Lucky appears in the driver’s seat.

2 Year Old Filly – Hot Dixie Chick was clearly the standout in the division but she called it a season before they even moved back to Belmont and never even went a mile.  BC winner She Be Wild generates little excitement, but her BC win coupled with a runner-up finish in the G1 Alcibiades and a solid record overall should be enough to earn the crown in a year with no standouts in the route races.

3 Year Old Colt – Summer Bird.  Easy.

3 Year Old Filly – Rachel Alexandra.  Easiest vote ever.  If anyone else gets a first place vote, the voter should not only lose their right to vote in the future but also have their name, email address, and Facebook profile link revealed for public humiliation.

Older Horse – Pass please.   This is really a tough one.  At first glance Gio Ponti seems like the obvious answer by default, however I do have a bit of a problem giving an Older Horse Eclipse Award to a horse who never raced on dirt and was only 1-for-3 on fake-dirt (synthetics).  Gio Ponti’s success came primarily on turf…and that’s why they have a Grass championship category.   But if not him, who?  Einstein ran horribly in the BC and Macho Again didn’t even run at all (although I don’t think I could justify seeing him win an Eclipse under any circumstances).  If you have to give an award in this category to a grass horse, isn’t that reason enough for not distributing the award at all?  I guess they can’t collude and persuade every single voter to abstain so it has to be Gio Ponti truly by default.

Older Filly & Mare – Zenyatta.  No witty comment here, sorry.  She’s clearly without equal.

Turf Male – I’m not sure that Gio Ponti would have beaten Conduit even though Conduit didn’t seem to run nearly as well this year compared to last year in winning the BC Turf – and clearly Gio Ponti running in the Classic was strictly a risk/reward proposition as I discussed previously – however his 4 Grade 1 wins on grass still entitle him to the award.  Nevertheless it definitely would have made things a little interesting if he had run in this race and lost – especially as a follow-up to getting beat by the great Interpretation in the Turf Classic at Belmont.   Too bad Precious Passion didn’t get good a little sooner as he’s a tough horse not to like.

Turf Female - No American standout so I think this is where Goldikova gets a lifetime achievement award for her back-to-back wins in the BC Turf Mile.  She’s a well-liked horse so I think she’ll win pretty easily in the absence of any other standouts. and a pretty disappointing year from defending champ Forever Together.

Sprinter – Ummm yeah.  I’m gonna need you to go ahead and not give out this award this year.  Thaaaaanks!  Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks was 4-for-5 however he never even ran in a graded stakes race prior to the BC.  Not nearly enough.  Zensational will get some support with his 5-for-7 record including 3 Grade 1′s, but he beat really crappy competition in those wins, benefited from soft trips each time, and ran exclusively over synthetics.  I think he had something to prove in the Breeders’ Cup and I can’t see rewarding him for completely failing to meet that challenge.  That brings us to the dirt horses.  Fabulous Strike is a tough horse not to like and will get a little support but I think he lost a step this year.  2-for-5 with no Grade 1 wins ain’t going to get it done.   Finally, Kodiak Kowboy presently has a fairly unimpressive 3-for-7 record however he did win 2 major Grade 1′s (The Carter & The Vosburgh) while finishing a close 2nd in another (The Forego).  He also beat Fabulous Strike in both of those Grade 1 wins – which is a lot more than you can say about the competition that Zensational was facing.  Again, I’d be in favor of not giving out the award here but since they probably have to my vote would go to Kodiak Kowboy by virtue of having the most going for him on the positive side as a result of his performances in the Carter, Forego, & Vosburgh.

Female Sprinter - Obviously Informed Decision after going 6-for-7 this year including her win in the BC F&M Sprint.  Ventura was clearly best in that race as Informed Decision got the best of the pace scenario, but she’s the one with the win on her resume and an otherwise strong record so she gets the award.  Ever think you’d be hearing the words “Sprint Champion” and “Jonathan Sheppard” in the same sentence?  Me neither!

I’m less interested in the human awards so I’ll skip those for now (other than to say that John Shirreffs definitely deserves the trainer title for getting both Zenyatta & Life Is Sweet to step it up and turn in career best efforts on their biggest days)  and I couldn’t name a single steeplechase contender for a million dollars so no comment there.  As for Horse of the Year…well that will be my next post!   Hopefully Sunday if time and life permit.

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