• Santa Anita – Wow!  For those of you who go there routinely I guess this goes without saying, but WOW (did I say that already?!)…what a view!  Those mountains make for a breathtaking backdrop.

Wow!

• Pro-Ride – Is there any doubt at this point that this is a completely separate surface that bears no resemblance to dirt, plays more like turf, and is extremely difficult to navigate for dirt horses with no past turf or synthetic experience?  When you see consistent horses with strong dirt form completely fail to fire time after time that’s telling you something.  You know the facts by now – not a single dirt horse won or even ran well.  Consistent dirt horses like Music Note, Sara Louise, Summer Bird, D’Funnybone, Devil May Care etc etc all failed to display anywhere near their established form over this track.  Bottom line – these races mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things when it comes to dirt horses.  For all intents and purposes you need to treat them the same way you’d treat a grass race for these horses.  America is built around dirt racing so it’s just sad to see us run prominent and championship races on an entirely different surface that holds no historical value or relative significance.  In addition, you can now view some of the performances from last year (ie – Curlin) through an even more colored lense and realize those races are dead throwouts.

What is this stuff?

This really isn't my living room carpet!

• Marathon – If not for the fact that some of these horses were coming from Europe you’d otherwise be hard-pressed to distinguish this race from the Gallant Fox Handicap in December at Aqueduct.  Just silly.

• Juvenile Filllies Turf – Why?  Surprised no one closed into pretty fast fractions.  Nice effort by Rose Catherine stretching out off that sensational debut in a turf sprint at Belmont.

• Juvenile Fillies – Zzzzzzz.  Lots of horses in the picture.  No one all that impressive.  Not sure this race means much in the grand scheme of things except to the winners.  Tough trip for Biofuel (who I bet of course) going 100 wide and getting sideswiped as she was making her move…and still closing well for 4th.

• F&M Turf – Midday figured better than these if Forever Together didn’t return to peak form.  Forever Together didn’t and Midday was.

• F&M Sprint – Some people must be looking at an $8.80 payoff for 7-for-7 on synthetics Informed Decision and thinking “Wow…what an easy game” but this race was as much about pace as anything else.  The race was essentially over after the first quarter as  Informed Decision sat just off a slow 23:1 quarter while probably-best Ventura attempted to close from the back of the pack.  Sara Louise had nothing on the pro-ride.

Informed Decision

• DISTAFF(!) – Not sure if Careless Jewel was just entirely rank or another with non Pro-Ride/Keeneland type synthetic experience (Woodbine is a bit of a different surface than those) who also didn’t handle the surface.  Either way, the Rachel Alexandra comparisons should stop for a while.  She should still make for a nice 4 yo if they stick to the dirt.  Obviously this was one that fell apart from the fast pace as Life Is Sweet came from the back to blow by the field.  Seeing a potent finisher like Music Note lack a strong closing punch again validates the stark  contrast in the surface.

• Juvenile Turf – Whatever.  Congrats to the connections I guess.

• Turf Sprint – Was hoping for chaos again but California Flag looked best if he could avoid an early duel.  Able to get away with a slow 21:2 quarter (well slow compared to last year’s 20:3 duel) he cruised home.

• Sprint – Just bet the fastest last race Beyer.  Easy game, right?!  Zensational got off a bit slow and couldn’t make the lead and showed little thereafter so obviously they decided to rest on their laurels and retire him.  After all what’s left to prove after you decisively beat Talking to MomRoo?  Fatal Bullet threw in his first synthetic clunker after everything seemed to set up well for him.  Champion Sprinter for $100, Alex?

• Juvenile – I’ll leave out the fact that I was alive with 7 of these in the Pick-4 (including Piscitelli for 90k who led through slow fractions and then re-rallied in midstretch) and missed it when I picked the wrong Euros to be my “A’s” (the Sprint eliminated my B’s in this race – which Vale of York was) and just say that obviously Lookin At Lucky lost nothing in defeat here.  I’m sure this race has some Santa Anita Derby or San Felipe  implications or something…but not much else.

• Turf Mile – Another pretty impressive performance by Goldikova who was obviously back on her “A” game.  Clearly one of the all-time good turf fillies, however I still wouldn’t put her near Miesque who ran faster, had a better career overall, and beat significantly better fields in her back-to-back triumphs.    Check out the fact that Miesque ran exclusively against males in the final EIGHT starts of her career – compiling a record of 6 wins and 2 seconds against a very deep and talented group (both in Europe & the US).

• Dirt Mile – Wide open race if Mastercraftsman didn’t fire.  Furthest Land obviously ran back to his last race.  Ridiculous to run this race in the heart of the Saturday card.  In other news, the “Dirt Mile” remains on target to actually be run at 1 Mile on the dirt for the first time next year.

• Turf – Pretty uninteresting race.  Amazing they can only get 7 horses (and just 3 from the US) to run for 3 Million Dollars on the grass.  Conduit wasn’t nearly as good this year as he was last year but it was still enough to get the job done.  Precious Passion is definitely a cool horse who has obviously improved quite a bit and become way more consistent.  It’s rare to see a horse do what he does on the turf so he’s definitely fun to watch.

The Classic!

Zenyatta

• Classic – Well Zenyatta certainly surprised me.  I didn’t expect her to win going in and she certainly looked beaten throughout most of the race but she managed to blow by the field and make history.  The moment gave you goosebumps and the cheering from the crowd reminded me of a playoff game atmosphere after a game-typing basket or Home Run which is remarkable to see at a racetrack.  Nevertheless my analytical side can’t help but view this effort in a slightly different context.  At the end of the day Zenyatta beat a field of primarily turf horses on a surface that almost none of them had run their best efforts over (Gio Ponti’s best efforts are on grass, Twice Over’s also on grass, & Summer Bird’s on dirt).  If Summer Bird faced Gio Ponti and Twice Over going 10 furlongs on the dirt, would you still bet him to run last of the 3?  Clearly Zenyatta is the queen of synthetics but I just can’t treat that the same way that I’d treat a horse who accomplished the same thing on dirt.  It’s a niche surface and it’s less significant than dirt.  Zenyatta very well might be as good on dirt but unfortunately it doesn’t look like we’ll ever get the chance to find out.

I obviously have a lot more to say about Zenyatta and the Classic and I plan to cover Zenyatta and why Rachel Alexandra is still Horse of the Year in separate posts.  I’ll also give some thoughts on the 2009 Eclipse Award picture later in the week as well.

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I’ve written extensively about the Breeders’ Cup as it pertains to Horse of the Year, Breeders’ Cup Beyer Speed Figures and  Fixing the Breeders’ Cup, but I’ve purposely been rather silent about this year’s Breeders’ Cup from a handicapping point of view because my only real opinion is that most of these races are incredibly wide-open and most favorites and short-priced horses are quite vulnerable. The synthetic aspect really complicates things from a handicapping perspective, but it makes them awfully appealing from a betting perspective.

How will the dirt horses do 1st time on synthetic? How will the turf horses do making their debuts on pro-ride…will their form carry over? Are speed figures really less relevant on synthetics to the extent that a slower horse with a strong finishing kick can beat a faster horse? Interesting questions and they all present opportunities for value. Should these races be chalky I don’t envision myself having a very good weekend.

Here are some very quick thoughts:

Marathon: What a ridiculous race.  Calling this a Breeders’ Cup race dilutes the name.  With that said, I’d probably key around Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron & Gangbuster while covering Muhnnak, Nite Light, Cloudy’s Knight, & Eldaffer to a smaller degree.

Juvenile Turf Fillies - I’ll be hoping for a bomb here as I could make a case for 12 of the 14, however House of Grace is the one I probably prefer most.

Juvenile Fillies – Looks wide open to me and again I’m spreading and hoping to catch a big price.  Blind Luck, Beautician, Connie & Mike, She Be Wild, Negligee, Always a Princess, and maybe Biofuel.  I’ll use Connie and Michael the heaviest from a defensive perspective as she seems the most talented.

F&M Turf – Forever Together still intrigues me and 10 furlongs and a firm turf could offer her the right conditions to fire again.  Otherwise most of the rest look pretty close aside from Midday who might be better than these.  Not a lot of pace so I’m curious to see if someone tries to steal it.  Maram is another who intrigues me.  She’s slower than several strong closers like Pure Clan & Magical Fantasy but she’s a rare one who seems like she’ll be more effective with added distance and would have a more potent kick going longer.  Not a throwout at all.

F&M Sprint – Ventura is probably better than these.  Curious to see how Sara Louise handles pro-ride bc she’s as good as any if she does and obviously Informed Decision is at her best going 7F on synthetics.

Ladies Classic – D-I-S-T-A-F-F!  I actually think this race is pretty wide open.  I’m not in love with Careless Jewel who has been meeting very soft fields and doesn’t have pro-ride/Keeneland type of experience.  Music Note ran a 98 Beyer on pro-ride last year and is clearly faster this year, however I don’t love the fact that her closing kick seemed less potent on pro-ride for some reason.  Torn on her.  Mushka, Proviso, Life Is Sweet & Rainbow View are also usable.  Yes that’s almost everyone but that’s what A-B-C tickets are for.

Juvenile Turf – Viscount Nelson, Codoy, Pounced, Gallant Gent, King Ledley, Becky’s Kitten, Interactif, Buzzword, Bridgetown, Awesome Act.  Bomb please!

Turf Sprint – I loved this race last year by settling on Storm Treasure to close into what I knew would be an insane pace and used him in the money in triples and caught a bomb winning with Desert Code.  There doesn’t appear to be quite as much speed this year but with so much potential for chaos in a race like this I can’t play California Flag.  If he doesn;t run his best and Diamondrella doesnt get an insane pace to run into, hopefully something wacky can happen again.

Sprint – I kinda like Fatal Bullet.  Obviously he’s a different horse on synthetics and I think he can sit just off Zensational and run at him in the stretch.  I’d love to play heavily against Zensational who has benefited from soft trips/pace scenarios without running especially fast, but it’s a pretty weak field and other than Fatal Bullet there’s not a ton of speed to run with him and he’s clearly better capable of firing a big fig at 6F than 7F.

Juvenile – If Looking At Lucky wins, I lose.  He’s a nice horse and it wouldn’t stun me if he wins but from a value perspective he’s a horrible play.  There are a number of others who are as fast, faster, or moving forward and intriguing.  Noble’s Promise (might not love this distance – by Cuvee – even though he ran a figure good enough to win at same distance last out), D’Funnybone (if he handles pro-ride), Pulsion (moving forward and by Include which indicates he should continue to develop with time and distance), Eskendereya (don’t love Pletcher on pro-ride but this one is fast and ran well on turf already), Aikenite (big fig at Keeneland on synths and moving forward), + you have Euros with turf form.

Mile – I’ll use but try to beat Goldiskova who has been in and out this year and was more visually impressive than fast in winning last year (albeit with a pretty powerful closing kick).  I could name a ton of horses I’ll be using here but suffice to say I’ll be going pretty deep and spreading and hoping for a price.

Dirt Mile – Pretty funny that in 3 years the “Dirt Mile” has never actually been run at a mile on the dirt.  Speaks volumes about the current absurdity that is the Breeders’ Cup.  You have to like Mastercraftsman.  Beyond that it looks pretty wide open to me.

Turf – No genius ideas here…I think Conduit is a pretty strong candidate to repeat.   Beyond that I can really only make a case for Dar Re Mi, Spanish Moon & Precious Passion.

Classic – Pretend you had been out of racing for 2 years and you called me up and said “I see it’s Breeders’ Cup day…tell me about the favorite for the Classic?”  And I replied “Well…it’s a mare who is coming off Beyers of 97 and 99 in her last 2 races, beat the longest priced horse in the morning line for the Distaff by a length in her last race and beat an allowance type horse by a head in her race before that – AND has never been 1 1/4 miles before and has only run 1 1/8 once this year in June.  Does that sound like enough of  a story to bring you back into action?

Look, Zenyatta is wonderfully talented horse and the source of one of the most complex evaluations of a “great” in history – but she is HORRIBLE value in this race.  This race should serve as a fascinating test for the question of how relevant are speed figures/performance figures on pro-ride and is this a rare example of a horse who literally does just what it takes to win?  If you take 2-1 or less to find out then you’re betting with your heart and not your head.  From a value perspective, there’s tons here.  I think Richard’s Kid looks like a great play to at least hit the board (which in and of itself speaks to the absurdity of this Breeders’ Cup) and perhaps create some big triples if Zenyatta’s out of the money.  I also like Colonel John, Einstein, & the Euros (who will probably win but won’t offer nearly as much value this time around).  Not sure what to do with Gio Ponti who wasn’t very fast on pro-ride in the winter but seems to have improved since then.  Also fascinating to see what happens with Quality Road & Summer Bird who are both immensely talented and pretty consistent dirt horses.  On dirt they would clearly be the 2 favorites.  Should neither run well it will make for a pretty glaring example of the differences between dirt form and pro-ride form – particularly in the case of horses without previous experience on the surface or on grass.

I wrote more than I though there but there’s plenty of time to kill on this 5 1/2 hour flight – and anything to distract me from these wildly uncomfortable seats on American Airlines.

My plan is to focus on Pick 4′s and spread pretty deeply using the standard A-B-C-X ticket style and swing for the fences.  I love these types of days because with the big fields and public money, a bomb or two and favorites losing can produce 50k-100k pick-4 payoffs.  Obviously you need to make fairly large investments, but the potential rewards are enormous on Breeders’ Cup day for those with a big enough bankroll – and this year even more than normal because of all the uncertainties associated with running on pro-ride.  As a fan, I detest it.  As a bettor, I like it!

Good luck to all and may the horse be with you!

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For anyone who still wants to press the case that “a good horse can run on anything,” the defense offers up Exhibits A, B, C, & D in the form of Fatal Bullet.

In 10 career starts on synthetics Fatal Bullet has a record of 8 wins and 2 seconds.   One of those losses was a second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Santa Anita.    In his last 5 synthetic starts Fatal Bullet has run Beyers of 109-107-108-100-107.

In 2 career starts on dirt Fatal Bullet is 0 for 2 – having finished 6th and 8th, beaten a combined 34 3/4 lengths.  In those 2 starts he ran Beyer figures of 65 and 71 which would make him overmatched in many low level claiming races.

Hmmm…

Last time out Fatal Bullet ran dead last in the Alfred G Vanderbilt at Saratoga beaten nearly 18 lengths running a Beyer figure of 65 without encountering any major trouble.  Entered back today in the Phoenix at Keeneland it figured to make for a excellent test.  Surely a horse coming off a 65 BSF would have a tough time beating veteran G3 sprinters who routinely run 100+ unless that performance was a total fluke.  Well…he did bounce back – beating Capt. Candyman Can (BSF’s of 103-105 in his 2 prior starts) by 1/2 length and likely reverting right back to that 105-110 BSF range.

Is it possible that a horse as consistent as Fatal Bullet happened to run 15 to 20 lengths slower in both of his dirt starts by pure random chance?  Well if you believe that then I very much look forward to seeing you on line next to me at the betting windows!

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