I’ve written extensively about the Breeders’ Cup as it pertains to Horse of the Year, Breeders’ Cup Beyer Speed Figures and  Fixing the Breeders’ Cup, but I’ve purposely been rather silent about this year’s Breeders’ Cup from a handicapping point of view because my only real opinion is that most of these races are incredibly wide-open and most favorites and short-priced horses are quite vulnerable. The synthetic aspect really complicates things from a handicapping perspective, but it makes them awfully appealing from a betting perspective.

How will the dirt horses do 1st time on synthetic? How will the turf horses do making their debuts on pro-ride…will their form carry over? Are speed figures really less relevant on synthetics to the extent that a slower horse with a strong finishing kick can beat a faster horse? Interesting questions and they all present opportunities for value. Should these races be chalky I don’t envision myself having a very good weekend.

Here are some very quick thoughts:

Marathon: What a ridiculous race.  Calling this a Breeders’ Cup race dilutes the name.  With that said, I’d probably key around Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron & Gangbuster while covering Muhnnak, Nite Light, Cloudy’s Knight, & Eldaffer to a smaller degree.

Juvenile Turf Fillies - I’ll be hoping for a bomb here as I could make a case for 12 of the 14, however House of Grace is the one I probably prefer most.

Juvenile Fillies – Looks wide open to me and again I’m spreading and hoping to catch a big price.  Blind Luck, Beautician, Connie & Mike, She Be Wild, Negligee, Always a Princess, and maybe Biofuel.  I’ll use Connie and Michael the heaviest from a defensive perspective as she seems the most talented.

F&M Turf – Forever Together still intrigues me and 10 furlongs and a firm turf could offer her the right conditions to fire again.  Otherwise most of the rest look pretty close aside from Midday who might be better than these.  Not a lot of pace so I’m curious to see if someone tries to steal it.  Maram is another who intrigues me.  She’s slower than several strong closers like Pure Clan & Magical Fantasy but she’s a rare one who seems like she’ll be more effective with added distance and would have a more potent kick going longer.  Not a throwout at all.

F&M Sprint – Ventura is probably better than these.  Curious to see how Sara Louise handles pro-ride bc she’s as good as any if she does and obviously Informed Decision is at her best going 7F on synthetics.

Ladies Classic – D-I-S-T-A-F-F!  I actually think this race is pretty wide open.  I’m not in love with Careless Jewel who has been meeting very soft fields and doesn’t have pro-ride/Keeneland type of experience.  Music Note ran a 98 Beyer on pro-ride last year and is clearly faster this year, however I don’t love the fact that her closing kick seemed less potent on pro-ride for some reason.  Torn on her.  Mushka, Proviso, Life Is Sweet & Rainbow View are also usable.  Yes that’s almost everyone but that’s what A-B-C tickets are for.

Juvenile Turf – Viscount Nelson, Codoy, Pounced, Gallant Gent, King Ledley, Becky’s Kitten, Interactif, Buzzword, Bridgetown, Awesome Act.  Bomb please!

Turf Sprint – I loved this race last year by settling on Storm Treasure to close into what I knew would be an insane pace and used him in the money in triples and caught a bomb winning with Desert Code.  There doesn’t appear to be quite as much speed this year but with so much potential for chaos in a race like this I can’t play California Flag.  If he doesn;t run his best and Diamondrella doesnt get an insane pace to run into, hopefully something wacky can happen again.

Sprint – I kinda like Fatal Bullet.  Obviously he’s a different horse on synthetics and I think he can sit just off Zensational and run at him in the stretch.  I’d love to play heavily against Zensational who has benefited from soft trips/pace scenarios without running especially fast, but it’s a pretty weak field and other than Fatal Bullet there’s not a ton of speed to run with him and he’s clearly better capable of firing a big fig at 6F than 7F.

Juvenile – If Looking At Lucky wins, I lose.  He’s a nice horse and it wouldn’t stun me if he wins but from a value perspective he’s a horrible play.  There are a number of others who are as fast, faster, or moving forward and intriguing.  Noble’s Promise (might not love this distance – by Cuvee – even though he ran a figure good enough to win at same distance last out), D’Funnybone (if he handles pro-ride), Pulsion (moving forward and by Include which indicates he should continue to develop with time and distance), Eskendereya (don’t love Pletcher on pro-ride but this one is fast and ran well on turf already), Aikenite (big fig at Keeneland on synths and moving forward), + you have Euros with turf form.

Mile – I’ll use but try to beat Goldiskova who has been in and out this year and was more visually impressive than fast in winning last year (albeit with a pretty powerful closing kick).  I could name a ton of horses I’ll be using here but suffice to say I’ll be going pretty deep and spreading and hoping for a price.

Dirt Mile – Pretty funny that in 3 years the “Dirt Mile” has never actually been run at a mile on the dirt.  Speaks volumes about the current absurdity that is the Breeders’ Cup.  You have to like Mastercraftsman.  Beyond that it looks pretty wide open to me.

Turf – No genius ideas here…I think Conduit is a pretty strong candidate to repeat.   Beyond that I can really only make a case for Dar Re Mi, Spanish Moon & Precious Passion.

Classic – Pretend you had been out of racing for 2 years and you called me up and said “I see it’s Breeders’ Cup day…tell me about the favorite for the Classic?”  And I replied “Well…it’s a mare who is coming off Beyers of 97 and 99 in her last 2 races, beat the longest priced horse in the morning line for the Distaff by a length in her last race and beat an allowance type horse by a head in her race before that – AND has never been 1 1/4 miles before and has only run 1 1/8 once this year in June.  Does that sound like enough of  a story to bring you back into action?

Look, Zenyatta is wonderfully talented horse and the source of one of the most complex evaluations of a “great” in history – but she is HORRIBLE value in this race.  This race should serve as a fascinating test for the question of how relevant are speed figures/performance figures on pro-ride and is this a rare example of a horse who literally does just what it takes to win?  If you take 2-1 or less to find out then you’re betting with your heart and not your head.  From a value perspective, there’s tons here.  I think Richard’s Kid looks like a great play to at least hit the board (which in and of itself speaks to the absurdity of this Breeders’ Cup) and perhaps create some big triples if Zenyatta’s out of the money.  I also like Colonel John, Einstein, & the Euros (who will probably win but won’t offer nearly as much value this time around).  Not sure what to do with Gio Ponti who wasn’t very fast on pro-ride in the winter but seems to have improved since then.  Also fascinating to see what happens with Quality Road & Summer Bird who are both immensely talented and pretty consistent dirt horses.  On dirt they would clearly be the 2 favorites.  Should neither run well it will make for a pretty glaring example of the differences between dirt form and pro-ride form – particularly in the case of horses without previous experience on the surface or on grass.

I wrote more than I though there but there’s plenty of time to kill on this 5 1/2 hour flight – and anything to distract me from these wildly uncomfortable seats on American Airlines.

My plan is to focus on Pick 4′s and spread pretty deeply using the standard A-B-C-X ticket style and swing for the fences.  I love these types of days because with the big fields and public money, a bomb or two and favorites losing can produce 50k-100k pick-4 payoffs.  Obviously you need to make fairly large investments, but the potential rewards are enormous on Breeders’ Cup day for those with a big enough bankroll – and this year even more than normal because of all the uncertainties associated with running on pro-ride.  As a fan, I detest it.  As a bettor, I like it!

Good luck to all and may the horse be with you!

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

So without further adieu here are the Beyer Speed Figures for all the “real” Breeders’ Cup races going back to 1984 – with the exception of a few of the early turf races.  I’ve highlighted the fastest figures.

Classic

08 – Raven’s Pass – 110
07 – Curlin – 119
06 – Invasor – 116
05 – Saint Liam – 112
04 – Ghostzapper – 124
03 – Pleasantly Perfect – 119
02 – Volponi – 116
01 – Tiznow – 117
00 – Tiznow – 116
99 – Cat Thief – 118
98 – Awesome Again – 116
97 – Skip Away – 120
96 – Alphabet Soup – 115
95 – Cigar – 117
94 – Concern – 115
93 – Arcangues – 114
92 – A.P. Indy – 114
91 – Black Tie Affair – 120
90 – Unbridled – 116
89 – Sunday Silence – 124
88 – Alysheba – 122
87 – Ferdinand – 117
86 – Skywalker – 118
85 – Proud Truth – 120
84 – Wild Again – 113

Distaff
08 – Zenyatta – 103
07 – Ginger Punch – 104
06 – Round Pond – 100
05 – Pleasant Home – 107
04 – Ashado – 102
03 – Adoaration – 101
02 – Azeri – 111
01 – Unbridled Elaine – 102
00 – Spain – 108
99 – Beautiful Pleasure – 109
98 – Escena – 105
97 – Ajina – 108
96 – Jewel Princess – 114
95 – Inside Information – 119
94 – One Dreamer – 105
93 – Hollywood Wildcat – 108
92 – Paseana – 105
91 – Dance Smartly – 107
90 – Bayakoa – 113
89 – Bayakoa – 115
88 – Personal Ensign – 115
87 – Sacahuista – 106
86 – Lady’s Secret – 113
85 – Life’s Magic – 110
84 – Princess Rooney – 120

Sprint
08 – Midnight Lute – 112
07- Midnight Lute – 108
06 – Thor’s Echo – 116
05 – Silver Train – 114
04 – Speightstown – 112
03 – Cajun Beat – 120
02 – Orientate – 114
01 – Squirtle Squirt – 119
00 – Kona Gold – 114
99 – Artax – 124
98 – Reraise – 112
97 – Elmhurst – 111
96 – Lit de Justice – 114
95 – Desert Stormer – 107
94 – Cherokee Run – 114
93 – Cardmania – 109
92 – Thirty Slews – 111
91 – Sheikh Albadou – 113
90 – Safely Kept – 116
89 – Dancing Spree – 115
88 – Gulch – 116
87 – Very Subtle – 121
86 – Smile – 118
85 – Precisionist – 125
84 – Eillo – 108

Juvenile
08 – Midshipman – 91
07 – War Pass – 113
06 - Street Sense – 108
05 – Stevie Wonderboy – 104
04 – Wilko – 98
03 – Action This Day – 92
02 – Vindication – 102
01 – Johannesburg – 99
00 – Macho Uno – 99
99 – Anees – 102
98 – Answer Lively – 97
97 – Favorite Trick – 101
96 – Boston Harbor – 99
95 – Unbridled’s Song – 103
94 – Timber Country – 100
93 – Brocco – 97
92 – Gilded Time – 87
91 – Arazi – 101
90 – Fly So Free – 101
89 – Rhythm – 98
88 – Is It True – 102
87 – Success Express – 109
86 – Capote – 93
85 – Tasso – 97
84 - Chief’s Crown – 106

Juvenile Fillies
08 – Stardom Bound – 94
07 – Indian Blessing – 95
06 – Dreaming of Anna – 90
05 – Folklore – 87
04 – Sweet Catomine – 102
03 – Halfbridled – 99
02 – Storm Flag Flying – 102
01 – Tempera – 107
00 – Caressing – 92
99 – Cash Run – 93
98 – Silverbulletday – 101
97 – Countess Diana – 95
96 – Storm Song – 97
95 – My Flag – 95
94 – Flanders – 92
93 – Phone Chatter – 95
92 – Eliza – 92
91 – Pleasant Stage – 85
90 – Meadow Star – 98
89 – Go For Wand – 93
88 – Open Mind – 91
87 – Epitome – 97
86 – Brave Raj – 98
85 – Twilight Ridge – 101
84 – Outstandingly – 89

Turf
08 – Conduit – 116
07 – English Channel – 111
06 – Red Rocks – 109
05 – Shirocco – 114
04 – Bettar Talk Now – 111
03 – High Chaparral/Johar – 112
02 – High Chaparral – 111
01 - Fantastic Light – 117
00 – Kalanisi – 110
99 – Daylami – 118
98 – Buck’s Boy – 111
97 – Chief Bearhart – 110
96 – Pilsudski – 115
95 – Northern Spur – 114
94 – Tikkanen – 115
93 – Kotashaan – 111
92 – Fraise – 110
91 – Miss Alleged – 111
90 – In the Wings – 113
89 – Prized – 110
88 – Great Communicator – 113
87 – Theatrical – 115
86 – Manila – xx
85 – Pebbles – xx
84 – Lashkari – xx

Mile
08 – Goldikova – 107
07 – Kip Deville – 108
06 – Miesque’s Approval – 109
05 – Artie Schiller – 110
04 – Singletary – 109
03 – Six Perfections – 105
02 – Domedriver – 113
01 – Val Royal – 114
00 – War Chant – 108
99 – Silic – 110
98 - Da Hoss – 114
97 – Spinning World – 114
96 – Da Hoss – 114
95 – Ridgewood Pearl – 114
94 – Barathea – 109
93 – Lure – 112
92 – Lure – 112
91 – Opening Verse – 110
90 – Royal Academy – 111
89 – Steinlen – 109
88 – Miesque – 117
87 – Miesque – 119
86 – Last Tycoon – xx
85 – Cozzen – xx
84 – Royal Heroine – xx

F&M Turf
08 – Forever Together – 105
07 – Lahudood – 105
06 – Ouija Board – 108
05 – Intercontinental – 107
04 – Ouija Board – 108
03 – Islington – 109
02 – Starine – 109
01 – Banks Hill – 112
00 – Perfect Sting – 105
99 – Soaring Softly – 105

Hope you enjoyed.  If anyone happens to have the early turf figures that I missed please let me know.  I know I have an old edition of The Racing Times where they included those figures but to my mother’s dismay this isn’t going to be the week that I return home and sort through all the old newspapers piled up in my old room!

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

On the other hand…well there is no other hand.  That’s pretty much what you’ve got.  Rachel Alexandra is a 3 year old filly who can run a 116 Beyer Speed Figure against top competition in a fairly run race and a 108-11 BSF when she encounters difficult trip and pace scenarios.

So where does that leave us?  In my last post I talked about how I loved speed figures because they provide us with some means of comparing horses in a historical sense.  Here are Rachel Alexandra’s last several Beyers:

Woodward – 109
Haskell – 116
Mother Goose – 111
Preakness – 108
Kentucky Oaks – 108

For comparative purposes here are some other recent 3 yo filly champs and their top Beyers during their 3 yo filly season:

2008 Proud Spell – Tops of 101, 99, 99, 97
2007 Rags to Riches – Tops of 107, 104, 98, 96
2006 Wait A While -Her accomplishments came on turf.  Dirt top of 90
2005 Smuggler - Tops of 98, 94, 93, 92 in season that ended in July.
2004 Ashado – Tops of 106, 103, 103, 102
2003 Bird Town -Tops of 101, 100, 100, 100
2002 Farda Amiga -Tops of 103, 103, 100, 95

Clearly Rachel Alexandra is FAST.  Much faster than most recent 3 year old filly champs.  When she encountered difficult pace scenarios in the Preakness & Woodward she still ran faster than any recent 3 yo filly champ ran in their best effort, and under normal circumstances she was 10-15 points superior.

So how does she compare to some of the greats?  Well on the positive side, 116 is about as fast as it gets.  On the negative side, there are quite a few who have run figures in that range.  Here are a few examples:

Lakeway ran a 117 winning the Hollywood Oaks.

Surfside ran a 116 winning the Clark (alebit much later in the season)

Silverbulletday ran a 115 in the Alabama – to go along with 109-107-108 in the Black Eyed Susan, Kentucky Oaks, & Ashland.

Go For Wand:

Beldame – 117
Maskette – 105
Alabama – 111
Test – 114
Mother Goose – 104

Then there’s Xtra Heat who couldn’t do it going long, but ran sprint figures of 120, 119, 117 as a 3 yo filly.

Very Subtle ran a 121 when she won the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Sprint over Groovy as a 3 year old filly.

Miesque ran a 119 when she won the  1987 Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile as a 3 yo filly.

I also seem to recall Mantistique running a 115 type number as a 3 yo filly at Hollywood but I have no record of it.  Winning Colors ran a similar number winning the Santa Anita Derby if memory serves, but I have no record of that either.  Winning Colors also ran a 115 in defeat losing to Personal Ensign in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

As far as older fillies & mares, clearly they have run faster due to maturity, but for comparative purposes the 2 fastest Breeders’ Cup Distaff’s on record belong to Princess Rooney (120) and Inside Information (119).  The great Lady’s Secret ran a 113 winning the BC Distaff but put up figures of 120 (Woodward), 119 (Ruffian), 118 (Whitney), and 116 (Maskette) in 1986.

“Great” is a term that is thrown around all too easily these days, but what’s the correct definition?  I define greatness as the intersection between extraordinary ability/talent and extraordinary accomplishments.  Many horses have one of the two, but few have both.  Rachel Alexandra displayed both in her 3 yo filly season.  Her 3 yo filly season was as accomplished as any by a 3 year old filly in recent memory.  But others are accomplished too which is where the figure comparison comes into play.

Is Rachel Alexandra substantially more talented than horses like Ruffian, Go For Wand, Silverbulletday and Winning Colors?  Definitely not.  They’re all in the same ballpark and would likely have traded wins with each other had they regularly competed against each other.  But her accomplishments as a 3 year old filly meet or exceed what any single one of them did over the course of a season.

In the final tally you have a horse who was as fast as any 3 year old filly in history and accomplished as much or more than any 3 yo filly in history.   In a single race I’m not so sure she could beat a handful of history’s top fillies, but when her ability is considered collectively with her accomplishments there’s no doubt she’s great and you’d be hard-pressed to say that any single 3 yo filly was better in a combined analysis – thereby making Rachel Alexandra the best 3 year old filly ever!

===============================

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

At 14 I began making my own speed figures. After that I was introduced to Thorograph & Ragozin sheets. I no longer have the time or energy to make my own figures – and certainly I consider a multitude of handicapping variables from pace to trips to trainers – but speed handicapping has always stayed with me as the core foundation of my handicapping approach. Speed figures are where racing makes sense to me. Speed figures measure how fast a horse ran and at the end of the day isn’t that what we’re all trying to figure out? Certainly there are a number of factors that influence the outcome of a race and this is why the correct application of speed figures involves a lot more than simply betting the fastest last number or fastest average last 3 numbers etc, but at the end of day no horse ever won a race while crossing the finish line in a slower time than his competitors (save for DQ’s of course).

Speed figures have an additional value for me as well. Aside from their practical application in day-to-day handicapping, they allow you to put top performances in some sort of historical or relative context. When a 3 year old wins its debut by 7 lengths, speed figures tell us if we’re looking at a horse that belongs on the Derby trail. When a horse wins by a large margin at a second tier track, the clock tells us if that horse has what it takes to compete with the elite in New York or California. Speed figures also provide the only semi-reliable means for comparing horses from different generations. Every generation has a set of champions, but speed figures are the most reliable method of figuring out just how good each one was and who was better than who. Are they failsafe and absolute? Of course not. But generally, a horse who typically runs 122-119-118-120 is superior to a horse who routinely runs in the 108-110 range.

There are some who detest such an approach but there’s no question that speed figures give us a more reliable assessment of a horse’s ability level than anything else – particularly assessments drawn by nothing more than the untrained human eye or things like wins and class that are either vague or utterly irrelevant without being put into some type of context. Those who are offended by such measurements generally aren’t very analytical or are simply clueless as to what a speed figure actually represents, how it’s calculated, and how it should be properly applied. We mock what we don’t understand. Or, in the words of Neil Peart (obligatory Rush reference – I’ve been slacking in that department thus far): Quick to judge, quick to anger, slow to understand / ignorance and prejudice and fear walk hand in hand…

So what’s the point to all of this beyond writing a basic 3rd grade essay on “Why I like speed figures?” Well first, I will using speed figures and sheet #’s quite frequently in this blog to measure and assess performances as well as to put them into historical and seasonal context. Second, I have several entries planned around the discussing certain top horses and just how fast they really were. Additionally, because of my love for numbers I have accumulated a pretty extensive collection of Beyer Speed Figures from top horses over the years – including many that were published either in the Racing Times or even before then when his figures were available through Bloodstock Research. It should make for some really interesting conversation in the coming days and weeks – particularly with the Breeders’ Cup coming around. With the exception of a few early turf races, I actually have an archive of the winning Beyer Speed Figure for every Breeders’ Cup race ever run…which I’ll publish soon.

A good place to begin though is probably with Rachel Alexandra and how she compares to other top 3 year old fillies over the years. I’ll work on that next…

===============================

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?