For those who aren’t familiar with the sheets, they are “performance figures” which are essentially speed figures with adjustments for weight & ground loss along with some other items.  Thorograph & Ragozin are the competing brands.  Each horse has their career graphically represented on a “sheet” of paper in order to view patterns and form cycles.  They’re quite good and there’s a lot of work that goes into the numbers.

So here’s his Thorograph sheet:

Sea The Stars was essentially running in the 0 to 2 range in his last several starts (the lower the number, the faster the race).

So how does that rank?

Well it’s good.  Championship quality.  But that’s about it.  Nothing different than what other elite turf horses have run recently.

For comparative purposes:

* Gio Ponti’s 3 previous #’s this year going into the Turf Classic were 0.5, -0.5, 0.25

* Conduit ran a 0.5 winning last year’s BC Turf

* Eagle Mountain ran a 0 running 2nd in last year’s turf

* Soldier of Fortune ran 1′s in his 3 starts in Europe last year before running a 2 in the Breeders Cup.

* English Channel ran a -0.25 winning the 2007 BC Turf with 2.5, 0.25, 1, 1 before that.  The previous year he ran 0, 1, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75. 0.75, 2.

* Dylan Thomas ran 3.25, 1, 2.25, 0, 0, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2.25 working backward in 2007.

* Red Rocks ran a 0 winning the 2006 Breeders Cup Turf.

* Shirrocco ran a -0.5 winning the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

(all figures are from Thorograph)

Interesting?  I thought so!  Greatest ever?  Nah…

===============================

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

* So See The Stars is done.  Great horse – no doubt – but as I covered here in a previous post I still don’t quite get why he’s greater than the “latest and greatest” to come out of Europe in several other recent years, let alone better than historical figures like Mill Reef or Sea-Bird in Europe or Secretariat and Man O’ War in the US, but apparently many people do.   It’s certainly not based on winning by open lengths, comparative margins of victory against the same horse, times, his thorograph figures, or his record.  But it appears there’s something else there that I’m missing because there are countless articles labeling him as such.  At least Steve Crist agrees with me.

* Here’s something else I don’t get.  Believe me, I understand economics as well as anyone, but if you have more money than you’ll ever need isn’t there a thrill to watching your horse continue to run if they’re regarded as one of the greatest horses to ever race?  I’m not saying to beat the horse into the ground, but wouldn’t you want to see him at 4 if he’s “fit and healthy” as John Oxx described him today?  Don’t people get into this game for the remote possibility of one day having a horse like this?  I presently own a small piece of several horses and watching them run in a maiden race is indescribably exciting.  I can’t even imagine what it would be like to own a true “great” or even a champion.  It just blows my mind that it’s so rare that someone ever says something like “You know what?  The horse is sound and feeling good and I don’t need the money and seeing him race is the most incredible feeling in the world so I’m going to bring him back next year.”   I understand the reasons for going to stud and the insurance considerations etc, but how does this  almost *never* happen these days?

I simply can’t imagine owning a champion, not needing or caring about money, and rushing to retire them prematurely.  And I don’t want to hear that there’s nothing else to prove.  There’s always more to prove – especially in a 9-race career that essentially lasted 6 months.  What about simply cementing a legend?  There’s coming back at 4 and dominating again.  There’s the Breeders’ Cup in the US.  There’s dirt in the US.  Say the horse were to come back next year and win 5 or 6 major races in Europe again, win the Arc for a second year in a row, and come over to the US and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic on dirt by 5 lengths…well then you’d truly have a legend.  You’d have a horse that ranks alongside Secretariat (justifiably) as one of the top 2 or 3 horses in racing history.  What about simply winning the Arc in back to back years and then becoming the only Arc winner to win the BC Turf (or any Breeders’ Cup race)?  There are any number of things that could be accomplished to further his greatness and historical ranking.

Disappointing.  But at least if history is a guide, at least we’ll have another greatest horse ever coming out of Europe to admire within a year or two.

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

* Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?

Man o’War in the 1920s. Phar Lap in the ’30s. Secretariat in the ’70s. Dancing Brave in the ’80s. The debate over horse racing’s greatest ever flat runner has always been as contested as a Breeders’ Cup — and it just got hotter. Sea the Stars, an Irish-trained colt that darted to victory in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Oct. 4, might just be the greatest of them all.

And there are plenty more like it. Do a search for “Sea The Stars” + “Greatest Ever” and you’ll find countless articles proclaiming Sea The Stars the best horse to ever race.

Look – he’s a superstar…no argument…but unequivocably the best ever? Better than Secretariat? Better than Man O’ War? Better than Mill Reef, Sea Bird, Ribot, Nijinsky, Alleged, & Dancing Brave? Based on what exactly?

His record isn’t superior to countless other top horses. He’s 8 for 9 – which is great – but hardly historically significant.

Certainly not his margins of victory. Sea The Stars has never won a race by more than 2 1/2 lengths. Margins of victory tend to be smaller in European grass races than in the US, but it’s hard to believe that the greatest horse in history was never more than 2 lengths better than his competition. Never. I’m not talking about winning by 31 like Secretariat did, or winning by 100 like Man O’War did, but not even once did he blow the doors off the competition and gallop away to even win by 6.

The nature and style of European racing makes speed figures (or any adjusted final time figures) a slightly less meaningful tool for measuring comparative ability than here in the US. Nevertheless, in assessing his figures Thorograph creator Jerry Brown recently wrote on his forum: “STS is a very good grass 3yo. Period (so far).” So he’s certainly not running significantly faster than any other horse in history.

Interestingly, Brown also goes on to say: “At 1 1/2 miles 8 pounds is worth 4 lengths. It’s not a coincidence that the greatest horse that ever lived this year is almost always a European 3yo– the scale of weights is different than here.”

And yes, there certainly does seem to be a “latest and greatest ever” almost every single year in Europe. Just a year ago, Zarkava punctuated a perfect 7-for-7 career with a win in the ARC by 2 lengths over the same Youmzain that Sea The Stars just beat by 2. Why isn’t she the greatest ever? If Sea The Stars is the best ever and she had a better record, also won the ARC, and beat the same horse by the same margin then certainly she has to be close, no? How about some other recent European superstars:
* Dubai Millenium – 9 for 10. A 6 length winner of the Dubai World Cup on dirt and multiple G1 winner on turf including a 6 length win in the Queen Elizabeth and 8 length win in the Prince of Wales.
* Sinndar – 7 for 8 including wins in the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby (by 9) and Arc in 2:25 and change.
* Lammtarra – Just 4 for 4 but won the Epsom Derby off a 10 month layoff and won the Arc over Freedom Cry and Swain to end his career.
* Dalakhani – 8 for 9 just like Sea The stars. Won the French Derby & Arc.
* Peintre Celebre – 5 for 7 in 1997. Won the French Derby and concluded his career with a 5 length win over Pilsudski (BC Turf winner) in 2:24 3/5.
* Nashwan – Really considered a superstar in 1989 after winning the Epsom Derby by 5 and the Coral Eclipse by 5 until he lost his Arc prep and was retired.

It just seems like every year Europe is annointing a new superstar – and as Jerry Brown pointed out, it’s usually a 3 year old who is getting an advantageous weight break on their weight-for-age scale. Sea The Stars is a phenomenal horse and he’s made some historic achievements, but this “best horse ever” nonsense is just silly. Might he be one of the greats? Sure. But best ever? It’s cool to get caught up in the excitement of the moment but there’s nothing in his record, figures, accomplishments, or margins of victory that supports such a contention or establishes a clear level of superiority and dominance over some of the recent “greats,” let alone historical figures like Secretariat or Man O’ War or Dr Fager, or European legends Ribot, Mill Reef and Sea Bird.

Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FTKRacingBlog

Become a Facebook Fan: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/Farewell-To-Kings-Horse-Racing-Blog/153345362804?