In the meantime, I recently qualified for the National Handicapping Championship for the 3rd time so I’m definitely psyched about that.  My previous 2 times qualifying I did it in November so it’s nice to do it in March and know that I’m all set this early in the year.

Annual Eclipse Awards are sometimes difficult because there are no clear guidelines in how to comparatively assess ability vs accomplishment.  The general understanding is to simply measure the strength of the overall campaign (although this logic seems to have fallen by the wayside for Zenyatta supporters when it comes to the Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra debate for 2009 Horse of the Year). Selecting a champion for the decade is even more difficult because you’re facing the same questions multiplied by 10.  How do you treat a horse who had the most accomplished championship year vs a horse who was clearly the best and most talented champion but perhaps slightly less accomplished?

I’m going to go with a blended answer and take a little from both sides.  My list of champions for the decade are determined by seeing who rises to the top at the intersection between ability and accomplishment.  I will limit it to their individual championship years and not how they performed outside of those years.

2 Year Old Colt – This has to be War Pass who was absolutely brilliant is going 4-for-4 including G1 wins in the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup and recorded Beyers of 103 and 113 in those races.

2 Year Old Female -  I have to narrowly give this to Storm Flag Flying who was sensational as a 2 year old in going 4-for-4 with 3 Grade 1 wins (Matron, Frizette, Breeders’ Cup) and ran fast in the process (94-98-102 BSF’s).  Storm Flag Flying seemed to be getting better and looked poised to become an  all-time superstar before developing some issues at 3, subsequently getting hurt and never really regaining that elite form when she came back.  Closely behind is Halfbridled who was also sensational as a 2yo filly.  Sweet Catamine and Tempera were both extremely fast and quite good but they both lost races unlike the top 2.

3 Year Old Colt – What a tough call as most of these had somewhat incomplete seasons.  Tiznow only won 2 Grade 1′s.  Same with Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex.  Curlin won 3 Grade 1′s in a 6-for9 season.    Bernardini won 3 Grade 1′s in a 6-for-8 season.   My winner is Point Given who won 5 Grade 1′s and Horse of the Year in a 6-for-7 season that was cut short by injury.  His only loss was in the Derby where he inexplicably didn’t fire after making a big middle move – but his overall record was as good as anyone, his accomplishments as strong as anyone, and he won 2 more Grade 1′s than anyone else during the decade.

3 Year Old Filly – Rachel Alexandra…by as big a margin as she won the Kentucky Oaks & Mother Goose.

Older Male - Another difficult call in comparing ability and accomplishment as only Saint Liam and Mineshaft (and now Gio Ponti – who is not considered because his wins were on turf) won 4 Grade 1′s.   Saint Liam was generally not brilliant and certainly wouldn’t make for a popular choice.  Mineshaft had an extremely strong year going 7-for-9, winning in January through September, and running fast.  But he passed on the Breeders’ Cup and beat a fairly weak group (Quest, Hold That Tiger, Volponi, Western Pride, American Style, Olmodavor, Learned, Halo’s Tiger, Revised Note ran 2nd in his wins) so a little luster is lost.

Mineshaft is still probably the most logical winner but I cannot vote against Ghostzapper who was simply incredible in his short 4 win Horse of the Year  season.  His accomplishments were obviously less than some others, but he was as talented as any horse to run since Spectacular Bid and lengths better than any other horse to run this decade.  His Breeders’ Cup was the fastest Classic ever and he beat a very strong field in what was, amazingly, just his 2nd career start around 2-turns and first time ever running 10 furlongs.  He’s my choice.

Older Filly/Mare – Had she not ran horribly in the Breeders’ Cup I’d give the nod to the often-forgotten Riboletta who was as good as just about any filly or mare in years for a few months in 2000.   She was 7-for-11 that year (with 2 of those losses coming on turf)  with Beyers of 115-115-111-110.   But with her glaring 7th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup, this becomes a toss-up between Zenyatta’s 7-for-7 season in 2008 (4 Grade 1′s) and Azeri’s 8-for-9 season in 2002 (5 Grade 1′s).  Ability-wise they were pretty similar – with Azeri perhaps a touch faster than year.  Neither campaign was super aggressive.  Azeri won 1 more race, and 1 more Grade 1, but she also lost a race while Zenyatta didn’t.  But because of those extra wins and the fact that she was slightly more dominant in her victories and didn’t earn most of her wins over synthetics, I’d give the nod to Azeri by a nose.

Turf Male – High Chaparral by a small margin for his 2002 campaign in which he went 5-for-6 with 4 Grade 1 wins including the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and an easy win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.   Close runner-up is Fantastic Light for his 2001 campaign where he went 4-for-6 with 4 Grade 1′s and was ultra impressive winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf running a 117 Beyer (vs 111 for High Chaparral).

Turf Female – Ouija Board (2004) where she was 4-for-5 including wins in the English Oaks, Irish Oaks, and an easy win in the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Her only loss was a 3rd to Bago in the Arc.

On a sidenote, Ouija Board is a horse that I think has been overrated a bit.  People consider her among the best turf females of all-time but her record against males was actually pretty weak.  Ouija Board was actually just 2-for-11 in Grade 1 races against males over the course of her career – with one of those wins coming in Hong Kong.

Sprinter – Tough call between Kona Gold (2000) and Orientate (2002).  Kona Gold in 2000 was 5-for-6 with his only loss coming by a nose.  His Beyers that year were 112-109-119-118-117-114.   Orientate was 6-for-10 in 2002, however his 4 losses were either on turf (2) or going long (2).  Sprinting he was 6-for-6 with Beyers of 109-115-115-112-116-114.   This is a toss-up for me but since it’s impossible not to love a horse like Kona Gold who was very good for a long time, and since he was slightly faster, we’ll give him the nod.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let’s hear your thoughts…

Happy Holidays to all – and as Harvey Pack would say “May the horse be with you!”

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At 14 I began making my own speed figures. After that I was introduced to Thorograph & Ragozin sheets. I no longer have the time or energy to make my own figures – and certainly I consider a multitude of handicapping variables from pace to trips to trainers – but speed handicapping has always stayed with me as the core foundation of my handicapping approach. Speed figures are where racing makes sense to me. Speed figures measure how fast a horse ran and at the end of the day isn’t that what we’re all trying to figure out? Certainly there are a number of factors that influence the outcome of a race and this is why the correct application of speed figures involves a lot more than simply betting the fastest last number or fastest average last 3 numbers etc, but at the end of day no horse ever won a race while crossing the finish line in a slower time than his competitors (save for DQ’s of course).

Speed figures have an additional value for me as well. Aside from their practical application in day-to-day handicapping, they allow you to put top performances in some sort of historical or relative context. When a 3 year old wins its debut by 7 lengths, speed figures tell us if we’re looking at a horse that belongs on the Derby trail. When a horse wins by a large margin at a second tier track, the clock tells us if that horse has what it takes to compete with the elite in New York or California. Speed figures also provide the only semi-reliable means for comparing horses from different generations. Every generation has a set of champions, but speed figures are the most reliable method of figuring out just how good each one was and who was better than who. Are they failsafe and absolute? Of course not. But generally, a horse who typically runs 122-119-118-120 is superior to a horse who routinely runs in the 108-110 range.

There are some who detest such an approach but there’s no question that speed figures give us a more reliable assessment of a horse’s ability level than anything else – particularly assessments drawn by nothing more than the untrained human eye or things like wins and class that are either vague or utterly irrelevant without being put into some type of context. Those who are offended by such measurements generally aren’t very analytical or are simply clueless as to what a speed figure actually represents, how it’s calculated, and how it should be properly applied. We mock what we don’t understand. Or, in the words of Neil Peart (obligatory Rush reference – I’ve been slacking in that department thus far): Quick to judge, quick to anger, slow to understand / ignorance and prejudice and fear walk hand in hand…

So what’s the point to all of this beyond writing a basic 3rd grade essay on “Why I like speed figures?” Well first, I will using speed figures and sheet #’s quite frequently in this blog to measure and assess performances as well as to put them into historical and seasonal context. Second, I have several entries planned around the discussing certain top horses and just how fast they really were. Additionally, because of my love for numbers I have accumulated a pretty extensive collection of Beyer Speed Figures from top horses over the years – including many that were published either in the Racing Times or even before then when his figures were available through Bloodstock Research. It should make for some really interesting conversation in the coming days and weeks – particularly with the Breeders’ Cup coming around. With the exception of a few early turf races, I actually have an archive of the winning Beyer Speed Figure for every Breeders’ Cup race ever run…which I’ll publish soon.

A good place to begin though is probably with Rachel Alexandra and how she compares to other top 3 year old fillies over the years. I’ll work on that next…

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Not sure I agree with the reasons that led to his conclusion that Big Brown was such an underlay, but definitely a cool and usual spot for a racing analogy.

Thanks to my friend Jim for the link.

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(All PP’s come from Daily Racing Form)

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