Super Saver ran a pretty ordinary race in his debut in the Tampa Bay Derby when he wasn’t cranked up and then followed with a decent but umimpressive 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.  Set for his best, he moved forward to win the Derby running a 104 BSF.  He earned it under favorable circumstances, but why won’t he repeat that figure in the Preakness?  He should find himself on or near the lead in a race with little speed.  The Derby represented only a small forward move and from a pattern perspective he certainly figures to run a similar effort again and by all reports he’s doing very well since his Derby effort.  So if he runs in the 102-105 range who can beat him?  The only horse I can make a case for is Caracortado who is going synth to dirt with some decent efforts in California and a win on dirt in his debut.

I suppose Lookin At Lucky is an obvious horse off his trouble-filled trip in the Derby but I’m starting to wonder just how good this horse really is.  He’s never run all that fast, seems to always find trouble, and is a question mark to me at longer distances.  Plus he’ll be no value.

Bottom line:  I see little reason why Super Saver won’t run a similar figure as he did in the Derby and if he does (no matter how slow it is by historical standards) he’ll be tough to beat.  Throw in his tactical advantage and he’s a nice price at 9/5.   I’ll be rooting for Caracortado as I’m alive for a nice double with him.  Yawanna Twist and Aikenite are the next 2 that I’ll use.   It would certainly be a shame to see a horse like Super Saver going for a shot at the crown considering he wouldn’t finish in the top half of the Derby field in some years, but this is a betting game and he’s value in the Preakness.  Sometimes it just doesn’t pay to be a wiseguy!

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Annual Eclipse Awards are sometimes difficult because there are no clear guidelines in how to comparatively assess ability vs accomplishment.  The general understanding is to simply measure the strength of the overall campaign (although this logic seems to have fallen by the wayside for Zenyatta supporters when it comes to the Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra debate for 2009 Horse of the Year). Selecting a champion for the decade is even more difficult because you’re facing the same questions multiplied by 10.  How do you treat a horse who had the most accomplished championship year vs a horse who was clearly the best and most talented champion but perhaps slightly less accomplished?

I’m going to go with a blended answer and take a little from both sides.  My list of champions for the decade are determined by seeing who rises to the top at the intersection between ability and accomplishment.  I will limit it to their individual championship years and not how they performed outside of those years.

2 Year Old Colt – This has to be War Pass who was absolutely brilliant is going 4-for-4 including G1 wins in the Champagne and Breeders’ Cup and recorded Beyers of 103 and 113 in those races.

2 Year Old Female -  I have to narrowly give this to Storm Flag Flying who was sensational as a 2 year old in going 4-for-4 with 3 Grade 1 wins (Matron, Frizette, Breeders’ Cup) and ran fast in the process (94-98-102 BSF’s).  Storm Flag Flying seemed to be getting better and looked poised to become an  all-time superstar before developing some issues at 3, subsequently getting hurt and never really regaining that elite form when she came back.  Closely behind is Halfbridled who was also sensational as a 2yo filly.  Sweet Catamine and Tempera were both extremely fast and quite good but they both lost races unlike the top 2.

3 Year Old Colt – What a tough call as most of these had somewhat incomplete seasons.  Tiznow only won 2 Grade 1′s.  Same with Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex.  Curlin won 3 Grade 1′s in a 6-for9 season.    Bernardini won 3 Grade 1′s in a 6-for-8 season.   My winner is Point Given who won 5 Grade 1′s and Horse of the Year in a 6-for-7 season that was cut short by injury.  His only loss was in the Derby where he inexplicably didn’t fire after making a big middle move – but his overall record was as good as anyone, his accomplishments as strong as anyone, and he won 2 more Grade 1′s than anyone else during the decade.

3 Year Old Filly – Rachel Alexandra…by as big a margin as she won the Kentucky Oaks & Mother Goose.

Older Male - Another difficult call in comparing ability and accomplishment as only Saint Liam and Mineshaft (and now Gio Ponti – who is not considered because his wins were on turf) won 4 Grade 1′s.   Saint Liam was generally not brilliant and certainly wouldn’t make for a popular choice.  Mineshaft had an extremely strong year going 7-for-9, winning in January through September, and running fast.  But he passed on the Breeders’ Cup and beat a fairly weak group (Quest, Hold That Tiger, Volponi, Western Pride, American Style, Olmodavor, Learned, Halo’s Tiger, Revised Note ran 2nd in his wins) so a little luster is lost.

Mineshaft is still probably the most logical winner but I cannot vote against Ghostzapper who was simply incredible in his short 4 win Horse of the Year  season.  His accomplishments were obviously less than some others, but he was as talented as any horse to run since Spectacular Bid and lengths better than any other horse to run this decade.  His Breeders’ Cup was the fastest Classic ever and he beat a very strong field in what was, amazingly, just his 2nd career start around 2-turns and first time ever running 10 furlongs.  He’s my choice.

Older Filly/Mare – Had she not ran horribly in the Breeders’ Cup I’d give the nod to the often-forgotten Riboletta who was as good as just about any filly or mare in years for a few months in 2000.   She was 7-for-11 that year (with 2 of those losses coming on turf)  with Beyers of 115-115-111-110.   But with her glaring 7th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup, this becomes a toss-up between Zenyatta’s 7-for-7 season in 2008 (4 Grade 1′s) and Azeri’s 8-for-9 season in 2002 (5 Grade 1′s).  Ability-wise they were pretty similar – with Azeri perhaps a touch faster than year.  Neither campaign was super aggressive.  Azeri won 1 more race, and 1 more Grade 1, but she also lost a race while Zenyatta didn’t.  But because of those extra wins and the fact that she was slightly more dominant in her victories and didn’t earn most of her wins over synthetics, I’d give the nod to Azeri by a nose.

Turf Male – High Chaparral by a small margin for his 2002 campaign in which he went 5-for-6 with 4 Grade 1 wins including the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and an easy win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.   Close runner-up is Fantastic Light for his 2001 campaign where he went 4-for-6 with 4 Grade 1′s and was ultra impressive winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf running a 117 Beyer (vs 111 for High Chaparral).

Turf Female – Ouija Board (2004) where she was 4-for-5 including wins in the English Oaks, Irish Oaks, and an easy win in the BC Filly & Mare Turf.  Her only loss was a 3rd to Bago in the Arc.

On a sidenote, Ouija Board is a horse that I think has been overrated a bit.  People consider her among the best turf females of all-time but her record against males was actually pretty weak.  Ouija Board was actually just 2-for-11 in Grade 1 races against males over the course of her career – with one of those wins coming in Hong Kong.

Sprinter – Tough call between Kona Gold (2000) and Orientate (2002).  Kona Gold in 2000 was 5-for-6 with his only loss coming by a nose.  His Beyers that year were 112-109-119-118-117-114.   Orientate was 6-for-10 in 2002, however his 4 losses were either on turf (2) or going long (2).  Sprinting he was 6-for-6 with Beyers of 109-115-115-112-116-114.   This is a toss-up for me but since it’s impossible not to love a horse like Kona Gold who was very good for a long time, and since he was slightly faster, we’ll give him the nod.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let’s hear your thoughts…

Happy Holidays to all – and as Harvey Pack would say “May the horse be with you!”

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The one argument I have yet to see?  “Zenyatta had a better year than Rachel Alexandra.”  Why?  Because you cannot make that argument.  By no logical measurement did Zenyatta do more or accomplish more than Rachel Alexandra in 2009 – and THAT is what Horse of the Year is about…WHO HAD THE BEST OVERALL CAMPAIGN.

Yes – Zenyatta’s Breeders’ Cup Classic win was more meaningful than any single race Rachel Alexandra won.  But we don’t automatically award Horse of the Year to the BC Classic winner.  If we did, Raven’s Pass would have been Horse of the Year last year and Volponi would have been Horse of the Year in 2002 and the great Cat Thief would have been Horse of the Year in 1999.  Certainly undefeated Awesome Again would have been Horse of the Year in 1998 ahead of Skip Away, but he wasn’t…because Skip Away’s accomplishments for the year dwarfed what Awesome Again did.  This is the same situation.  If Zenyatta’s Breeders’ Cup Classic win was the most meaningful win of the year by either horse, certainly numbers two, three, four, and five on the list belong to Rachel in the form of her wins in the Preakness, Woodward, Haskell and Kentucky Oaks by 20 lengths.   That speaks to the difference in their overall campaigns: Of the 5 most significant wins of the season between the two horses, 4 of them belong to Rachel Alexandra.

By now we all know the stats: Rachel was 8-for-8 while Zenyatta was 5-for-5.  Rachel won 5 Grade 1′s and Zenyatta won 4.  Rachel beat males 3 times, Zenyatta once.  Rachel won over 7 racetracks in 6 different states, under all conditions, while Zenyatta never left California, never ran over anything but a synthetic surface, and was scratched the one time the track came up muddy.  They all favor Rachel.  From the total domination of her division, to stepping outside her division and beating males while encountering tough trips and pace scenarios that would have done in many other top horses, to becoming the first 3 year old filly to ever beat older males in the Woodward, Rachel Alexandra’s season was one for the ages.  Her connections challenged her at every turn – from running her in different states, on different racetracks, on wet tracks, to facing males in the Preakness from Post 13  just 2 weeks after her Kentucky Oaks win while switching barns, to facing older males at a time when most 3 year old fillies are still running in their own division.  There was absolutely nothing “safe” about her campaign.  They constantly took risks and challenged her when easier races were available.  This type of mentality absolutely needs to be rewarded – particularly in this day and age when horses run so infrequently and rivalries between top class horse so uncommon because most horses run campaigns built around the path of least resistance.

By contrast, Zenyatta’s connections managed her as conservatively as possible right up until the time of the Breeders’ Cup.  She ran a total of just 5 races.  She was scratched from her seasonal debut in Kentucky when the track came up wet and never shipped again.  She didn’t run in the Hollywood Gold Cup – a race her stablemate Life Is Sweet ran in.  She skipped the Pacific Classic – instead getting an extra month off going into the fall.  She ran in exactly the same races she won last year against competition she had proven superior to.  Her connections resisted all attempts to set up a matchup against Rachel Alexandra during fall citing the Breeders’ Cup as the setting for a race like that.  The racing season is more than just the Breeders’ Cup.  Connections who believe that there is no need to challenge their horses or push their horses until they get to the Breeders’ Cup set a bad precedent for the game and certainly don’t deserve to rewarded for that type of mentality.  Suggesting that good horses should never face each other outside of the Breeders’ Cup is just bad policy.

For those who suggest that Rachel’s connections should similarly be punished for passing on the Breeders’ Cup I’d agree had the BC been held on a standard dirt track and had she not shown signs of her challenging campaign beginning to catch up with her.  But it’s now beyond all reasonable doubt that pro-ride is an entirely different surface from dirt and running Rachel on that surface would have meant little more than running her in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  Regardless, to use an overly cliched phrase in racing: She had done enough by that point.

There is no possible interpretation of their comparative seasons that places Zenyatta even at a level of equality with Rachel Alexandra in 2009 let alone ahead of her.  You cannot possibly compare the years side by side and suggest that Zenyatta had the better year or that she accomplished more.  Take Zenyatta’s BC Classic win for what it was – a single incredible performance – but not something that magically makes an otherwise nondescript year suddenly more impressive than the extraordinary season Rachel had.  Had Zenyatta’s year ended prior to the Breeders’ Cup she wouldn’t have even been # 2 or # 3 in the Horse of the Year voting based upon what she had accomplished to date.  Thus, any argument for her receiving Horse of the Year is built entirely around a single win in the Breeders’ Cup and that’s just not what Horse of the Year is based upon.

Horse of the Year goes to the horse who had the best and most impressive overall season.  In 2009 it all unequivocally adds up to Rachel Alexandra.

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2 Year Old Colt – I don’t sense any groundswell of support for Vale of York getting it off a victory at 30-1 and Lookin At Lucky lost little in defeat after just missing while breaking from Post 13.  With 4 wins and a second in 5 starts including wins in the Del Mar Futurity & Norfolk, Lookin At Lucky appears in the driver’s seat.

2 Year Old Filly – Hot Dixie Chick was clearly the standout in the division but she called it a season before they even moved back to Belmont and never even went a mile.  BC winner She Be Wild generates little excitement, but her BC win coupled with a runner-up finish in the G1 Alcibiades and a solid record overall should be enough to earn the crown in a year with no standouts in the route races.

3 Year Old Colt – Summer Bird.  Easy.

3 Year Old Filly – Rachel Alexandra.  Easiest vote ever.  If anyone else gets a first place vote, the voter should not only lose their right to vote in the future but also have their name, email address, and Facebook profile link revealed for public humiliation.

Older Horse – Pass please.   This is really a tough one.  At first glance Gio Ponti seems like the obvious answer by default, however I do have a bit of a problem giving an Older Horse Eclipse Award to a horse who never raced on dirt and was only 1-for-3 on fake-dirt (synthetics).  Gio Ponti’s success came primarily on turf…and that’s why they have a Grass championship category.   But if not him, who?  Einstein ran horribly in the BC and Macho Again didn’t even run at all (although I don’t think I could justify seeing him win an Eclipse under any circumstances).  If you have to give an award in this category to a grass horse, isn’t that reason enough for not distributing the award at all?  I guess they can’t collude and persuade every single voter to abstain so it has to be Gio Ponti truly by default.

Older Filly & Mare – Zenyatta.  No witty comment here, sorry.  She’s clearly without equal.

Turf Male – I’m not sure that Gio Ponti would have beaten Conduit even though Conduit didn’t seem to run nearly as well this year compared to last year in winning the BC Turf – and clearly Gio Ponti running in the Classic was strictly a risk/reward proposition as I discussed previously – however his 4 Grade 1 wins on grass still entitle him to the award.  Nevertheless it definitely would have made things a little interesting if he had run in this race and lost – especially as a follow-up to getting beat by the great Interpretation in the Turf Classic at Belmont.   Too bad Precious Passion didn’t get good a little sooner as he’s a tough horse not to like.

Turf Female - No American standout so I think this is where Goldikova gets a lifetime achievement award for her back-to-back wins in the BC Turf Mile.  She’s a well-liked horse so I think she’ll win pretty easily in the absence of any other standouts. and a pretty disappointing year from defending champ Forever Together.

Sprinter – Ummm yeah.  I’m gonna need you to go ahead and not give out this award this year.  Thaaaaanks!  Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Dancing In Silks was 4-for-5 however he never even ran in a graded stakes race prior to the BC.  Not nearly enough.  Zensational will get some support with his 5-for-7 record including 3 Grade 1′s, but he beat really crappy competition in those wins, benefited from soft trips each time, and ran exclusively over synthetics.  I think he had something to prove in the Breeders’ Cup and I can’t see rewarding him for completely failing to meet that challenge.  That brings us to the dirt horses.  Fabulous Strike is a tough horse not to like and will get a little support but I think he lost a step this year.  2-for-5 with no Grade 1 wins ain’t going to get it done.   Finally, Kodiak Kowboy presently has a fairly unimpressive 3-for-7 record however he did win 2 major Grade 1′s (The Carter & The Vosburgh) while finishing a close 2nd in another (The Forego).  He also beat Fabulous Strike in both of those Grade 1 wins – which is a lot more than you can say about the competition that Zensational was facing.  Again, I’d be in favor of not giving out the award here but since they probably have to my vote would go to Kodiak Kowboy by virtue of having the most going for him on the positive side as a result of his performances in the Carter, Forego, & Vosburgh.

Female Sprinter - Obviously Informed Decision after going 6-for-7 this year including her win in the BC F&M Sprint.  Ventura was clearly best in that race as Informed Decision got the best of the pace scenario, but she’s the one with the win on her resume and an otherwise strong record so she gets the award.  Ever think you’d be hearing the words “Sprint Champion” and “Jonathan Sheppard” in the same sentence?  Me neither!

I’m less interested in the human awards so I’ll skip those for now (other than to say that John Shirreffs definitely deserves the trainer title for getting both Zenyatta & Life Is Sweet to step it up and turn in career best efforts on their biggest days)  and I couldn’t name a single steeplechase contender for a million dollars so no comment there.  As for Horse of the Year…well that will be my next post!   Hopefully Sunday if time and life permit.

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• Santa Anita – Wow!  For those of you who go there routinely I guess this goes without saying, but WOW (did I say that already?!)…what a view!  Those mountains make for a breathtaking backdrop.

Wow!

• Pro-Ride – Is there any doubt at this point that this is a completely separate surface that bears no resemblance to dirt, plays more like turf, and is extremely difficult to navigate for dirt horses with no past turf or synthetic experience?  When you see consistent horses with strong dirt form completely fail to fire time after time that’s telling you something.  You know the facts by now – not a single dirt horse won or even ran well.  Consistent dirt horses like Music Note, Sara Louise, Summer Bird, D’Funnybone, Devil May Care etc etc all failed to display anywhere near their established form over this track.  Bottom line – these races mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things when it comes to dirt horses.  For all intents and purposes you need to treat them the same way you’d treat a grass race for these horses.  America is built around dirt racing so it’s just sad to see us run prominent and championship races on an entirely different surface that holds no historical value or relative significance.  In addition, you can now view some of the performances from last year (ie – Curlin) through an even more colored lense and realize those races are dead throwouts.

What is this stuff?

This really isn't my living room carpet!

• Marathon – If not for the fact that some of these horses were coming from Europe you’d otherwise be hard-pressed to distinguish this race from the Gallant Fox Handicap in December at Aqueduct.  Just silly.

• Juvenile Filllies Turf – Why?  Surprised no one closed into pretty fast fractions.  Nice effort by Rose Catherine stretching out off that sensational debut in a turf sprint at Belmont.

• Juvenile Fillies – Zzzzzzz.  Lots of horses in the picture.  No one all that impressive.  Not sure this race means much in the grand scheme of things except to the winners.  Tough trip for Biofuel (who I bet of course) going 100 wide and getting sideswiped as she was making her move…and still closing well for 4th.

• F&M Turf – Midday figured better than these if Forever Together didn’t return to peak form.  Forever Together didn’t and Midday was.

• F&M Sprint – Some people must be looking at an $8.80 payoff for 7-for-7 on synthetics Informed Decision and thinking “Wow…what an easy game” but this race was as much about pace as anything else.  The race was essentially over after the first quarter as  Informed Decision sat just off a slow 23:1 quarter while probably-best Ventura attempted to close from the back of the pack.  Sara Louise had nothing on the pro-ride.

Informed Decision

• DISTAFF(!) – Not sure if Careless Jewel was just entirely rank or another with non Pro-Ride/Keeneland type synthetic experience (Woodbine is a bit of a different surface than those) who also didn’t handle the surface.  Either way, the Rachel Alexandra comparisons should stop for a while.  She should still make for a nice 4 yo if they stick to the dirt.  Obviously this was one that fell apart from the fast pace as Life Is Sweet came from the back to blow by the field.  Seeing a potent finisher like Music Note lack a strong closing punch again validates the stark  contrast in the surface.

• Juvenile Turf – Whatever.  Congrats to the connections I guess.

• Turf Sprint – Was hoping for chaos again but California Flag looked best if he could avoid an early duel.  Able to get away with a slow 21:2 quarter (well slow compared to last year’s 20:3 duel) he cruised home.

• Sprint – Just bet the fastest last race Beyer.  Easy game, right?!  Zensational got off a bit slow and couldn’t make the lead and showed little thereafter so obviously they decided to rest on their laurels and retire him.  After all what’s left to prove after you decisively beat Talking to MomRoo?  Fatal Bullet threw in his first synthetic clunker after everything seemed to set up well for him.  Champion Sprinter for $100, Alex?

• Juvenile – I’ll leave out the fact that I was alive with 7 of these in the Pick-4 (including Piscitelli for 90k who led through slow fractions and then re-rallied in midstretch) and missed it when I picked the wrong Euros to be my “A’s” (the Sprint eliminated my B’s in this race – which Vale of York was) and just say that obviously Lookin At Lucky lost nothing in defeat here.  I’m sure this race has some Santa Anita Derby or San Felipe  implications or something…but not much else.

• Turf Mile – Another pretty impressive performance by Goldikova who was obviously back on her “A” game.  Clearly one of the all-time good turf fillies, however I still wouldn’t put her near Miesque who ran faster, had a better career overall, and beat significantly better fields in her back-to-back triumphs.    Check out the fact that Miesque ran exclusively against males in the final EIGHT starts of her career – compiling a record of 6 wins and 2 seconds against a very deep and talented group (both in Europe & the US).

• Dirt Mile – Wide open race if Mastercraftsman didn’t fire.  Furthest Land obviously ran back to his last race.  Ridiculous to run this race in the heart of the Saturday card.  In other news, the “Dirt Mile” remains on target to actually be run at 1 Mile on the dirt for the first time next year.

• Turf – Pretty uninteresting race.  Amazing they can only get 7 horses (and just 3 from the US) to run for 3 Million Dollars on the grass.  Conduit wasn’t nearly as good this year as he was last year but it was still enough to get the job done.  Precious Passion is definitely a cool horse who has obviously improved quite a bit and become way more consistent.  It’s rare to see a horse do what he does on the turf so he’s definitely fun to watch.

The Classic!

Zenyatta

• Classic – Well Zenyatta certainly surprised me.  I didn’t expect her to win going in and she certainly looked beaten throughout most of the race but she managed to blow by the field and make history.  The moment gave you goosebumps and the cheering from the crowd reminded me of a playoff game atmosphere after a game-typing basket or Home Run which is remarkable to see at a racetrack.  Nevertheless my analytical side can’t help but view this effort in a slightly different context.  At the end of the day Zenyatta beat a field of primarily turf horses on a surface that almost none of them had run their best efforts over (Gio Ponti’s best efforts are on grass, Twice Over’s also on grass, & Summer Bird’s on dirt).  If Summer Bird faced Gio Ponti and Twice Over going 10 furlongs on the dirt, would you still bet him to run last of the 3?  Clearly Zenyatta is the queen of synthetics but I just can’t treat that the same way that I’d treat a horse who accomplished the same thing on dirt.  It’s a niche surface and it’s less significant than dirt.  Zenyatta very well might be as good on dirt but unfortunately it doesn’t look like we’ll ever get the chance to find out.

I obviously have a lot more to say about Zenyatta and the Classic and I plan to cover Zenyatta and why Rachel Alexandra is still Horse of the Year in separate posts.  I’ll also give some thoughts on the 2009 Eclipse Award picture later in the week as well.

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So without further adieu here are the Beyer Speed Figures for all the “real” Breeders’ Cup races going back to 1984 – with the exception of a few of the early turf races.  I’ve highlighted the fastest figures.

Classic

08 – Raven’s Pass – 110
07 – Curlin – 119
06 – Invasor – 116
05 – Saint Liam – 112
04 – Ghostzapper – 124
03 – Pleasantly Perfect – 119
02 – Volponi – 116
01 – Tiznow – 117
00 – Tiznow – 116
99 – Cat Thief – 118
98 – Awesome Again – 116
97 – Skip Away – 120
96 – Alphabet Soup – 115
95 – Cigar – 117
94 – Concern – 115
93 – Arcangues – 114
92 – A.P. Indy – 114
91 – Black Tie Affair – 120
90 – Unbridled – 116
89 – Sunday Silence – 124
88 – Alysheba – 122
87 – Ferdinand – 117
86 – Skywalker – 118
85 – Proud Truth – 120
84 – Wild Again – 113

Distaff
08 – Zenyatta – 103
07 – Ginger Punch – 104
06 – Round Pond – 100
05 – Pleasant Home – 107
04 – Ashado – 102
03 – Adoaration – 101
02 – Azeri – 111
01 – Unbridled Elaine – 102
00 – Spain – 108
99 – Beautiful Pleasure – 109
98 – Escena – 105
97 – Ajina – 108
96 – Jewel Princess – 114
95 – Inside Information – 119
94 – One Dreamer – 105
93 – Hollywood Wildcat – 108
92 – Paseana – 105
91 – Dance Smartly – 107
90 – Bayakoa – 113
89 – Bayakoa – 115
88 – Personal Ensign – 115
87 – Sacahuista – 106
86 – Lady’s Secret – 113
85 – Life’s Magic – 110
84 – Princess Rooney – 120

Sprint
08 – Midnight Lute – 112
07- Midnight Lute – 108
06 – Thor’s Echo – 116
05 – Silver Train – 114
04 – Speightstown – 112
03 – Cajun Beat – 120
02 – Orientate – 114
01 – Squirtle Squirt – 119
00 – Kona Gold – 114
99 – Artax – 124
98 – Reraise – 112
97 – Elmhurst – 111
96 – Lit de Justice – 114
95 – Desert Stormer – 107
94 – Cherokee Run – 114
93 – Cardmania – 109
92 – Thirty Slews – 111
91 – Sheikh Albadou – 113
90 – Safely Kept – 116
89 – Dancing Spree – 115
88 – Gulch – 116
87 – Very Subtle – 121
86 – Smile – 118
85 – Precisionist – 125
84 – Eillo – 108

Juvenile
08 – Midshipman – 91
07 – War Pass – 113
06 - Street Sense – 108
05 – Stevie Wonderboy – 104
04 – Wilko – 98
03 – Action This Day – 92
02 – Vindication – 102
01 – Johannesburg – 99
00 – Macho Uno – 99
99 – Anees – 102
98 – Answer Lively – 97
97 – Favorite Trick – 101
96 – Boston Harbor – 99
95 – Unbridled’s Song – 103
94 – Timber Country – 100
93 – Brocco – 97
92 – Gilded Time – 87
91 – Arazi – 101
90 – Fly So Free – 101
89 – Rhythm – 98
88 – Is It True – 102
87 – Success Express – 109
86 – Capote – 93
85 – Tasso – 97
84 - Chief’s Crown – 106

Juvenile Fillies
08 – Stardom Bound – 94
07 – Indian Blessing – 95
06 – Dreaming of Anna – 90
05 – Folklore – 87
04 – Sweet Catomine – 102
03 – Halfbridled – 99
02 – Storm Flag Flying – 102
01 – Tempera – 107
00 – Caressing – 92
99 – Cash Run – 93
98 – Silverbulletday – 101
97 – Countess Diana – 95
96 – Storm Song – 97
95 – My Flag – 95
94 – Flanders – 92
93 – Phone Chatter – 95
92 – Eliza – 92
91 – Pleasant Stage – 85
90 – Meadow Star – 98
89 – Go For Wand – 93
88 – Open Mind – 91
87 – Epitome – 97
86 – Brave Raj – 98
85 – Twilight Ridge – 101
84 – Outstandingly – 89

Turf
08 – Conduit – 116
07 – English Channel – 111
06 – Red Rocks – 109
05 – Shirocco – 114
04 – Bettar Talk Now – 111
03 – High Chaparral/Johar – 112
02 – High Chaparral – 111
01 - Fantastic Light – 117
00 – Kalanisi – 110
99 – Daylami – 118
98 – Buck’s Boy – 111
97 – Chief Bearhart – 110
96 – Pilsudski – 115
95 – Northern Spur – 114
94 – Tikkanen – 115
93 – Kotashaan – 111
92 – Fraise – 110
91 – Miss Alleged – 111
90 – In the Wings – 113
89 – Prized – 110
88 – Great Communicator – 113
87 – Theatrical – 115
86 – Manila – xx
85 – Pebbles – xx
84 – Lashkari – xx

Mile
08 – Goldikova – 107
07 – Kip Deville – 108
06 – Miesque’s Approval – 109
05 – Artie Schiller – 110
04 – Singletary – 109
03 – Six Perfections – 105
02 – Domedriver – 113
01 – Val Royal – 114
00 – War Chant – 108
99 – Silic – 110
98 - Da Hoss – 114
97 – Spinning World – 114
96 – Da Hoss – 114
95 – Ridgewood Pearl – 114
94 – Barathea – 109
93 – Lure – 112
92 – Lure – 112
91 – Opening Verse – 110
90 – Royal Academy – 111
89 – Steinlen – 109
88 – Miesque – 117
87 – Miesque – 119
86 – Last Tycoon – xx
85 – Cozzen – xx
84 – Royal Heroine – xx

F&M Turf
08 – Forever Together – 105
07 – Lahudood – 105
06 – Ouija Board – 108
05 – Intercontinental – 107
04 – Ouija Board – 108
03 – Islington – 109
02 – Starine – 109
01 – Banks Hill – 112
00 – Perfect Sting – 105
99 – Soaring Softly – 105

Hope you enjoyed.  If anyone happens to have the early turf figures that I missed please let me know.  I know I have an old edition of The Racing Times where they included those figures but to my mother’s dismay this isn’t going to be the week that I return home and sort through all the old newspapers piled up in my old room!

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On the other hand…well there is no other hand.  That’s pretty much what you’ve got.  Rachel Alexandra is a 3 year old filly who can run a 116 Beyer Speed Figure against top competition in a fairly run race and a 108-11 BSF when she encounters difficult trip and pace scenarios.

So where does that leave us?  In my last post I talked about how I loved speed figures because they provide us with some means of comparing horses in a historical sense.  Here are Rachel Alexandra’s last several Beyers:

Woodward – 109
Haskell – 116
Mother Goose – 111
Preakness – 108
Kentucky Oaks – 108

For comparative purposes here are some other recent 3 yo filly champs and their top Beyers during their 3 yo filly season:

2008 Proud Spell – Tops of 101, 99, 99, 97
2007 Rags to Riches – Tops of 107, 104, 98, 96
2006 Wait A While -Her accomplishments came on turf.  Dirt top of 90
2005 Smuggler - Tops of 98, 94, 93, 92 in season that ended in July.
2004 Ashado – Tops of 106, 103, 103, 102
2003 Bird Town -Tops of 101, 100, 100, 100
2002 Farda Amiga -Tops of 103, 103, 100, 95

Clearly Rachel Alexandra is FAST.  Much faster than most recent 3 year old filly champs.  When she encountered difficult pace scenarios in the Preakness & Woodward she still ran faster than any recent 3 yo filly champ ran in their best effort, and under normal circumstances she was 10-15 points superior.

So how does she compare to some of the greats?  Well on the positive side, 116 is about as fast as it gets.  On the negative side, there are quite a few who have run figures in that range.  Here are a few examples:

Lakeway ran a 117 winning the Hollywood Oaks.

Surfside ran a 116 winning the Clark (alebit much later in the season)

Silverbulletday ran a 115 in the Alabama – to go along with 109-107-108 in the Black Eyed Susan, Kentucky Oaks, & Ashland.

Go For Wand:

Beldame – 117
Maskette – 105
Alabama – 111
Test – 114
Mother Goose – 104

Then there’s Xtra Heat who couldn’t do it going long, but ran sprint figures of 120, 119, 117 as a 3 yo filly.

Very Subtle ran a 121 when she won the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Sprint over Groovy as a 3 year old filly.

Miesque ran a 119 when she won the  1987 Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile as a 3 yo filly.

I also seem to recall Mantistique running a 115 type number as a 3 yo filly at Hollywood but I have no record of it.  Winning Colors ran a similar number winning the Santa Anita Derby if memory serves, but I have no record of that either.  Winning Colors also ran a 115 in defeat losing to Personal Ensign in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

As far as older fillies & mares, clearly they have run faster due to maturity, but for comparative purposes the 2 fastest Breeders’ Cup Distaff’s on record belong to Princess Rooney (120) and Inside Information (119).  The great Lady’s Secret ran a 113 winning the BC Distaff but put up figures of 120 (Woodward), 119 (Ruffian), 118 (Whitney), and 116 (Maskette) in 1986.

“Great” is a term that is thrown around all too easily these days, but what’s the correct definition?  I define greatness as the intersection between extraordinary ability/talent and extraordinary accomplishments.  Many horses have one of the two, but few have both.  Rachel Alexandra displayed both in her 3 yo filly season.  Her 3 yo filly season was as accomplished as any by a 3 year old filly in recent memory.  But others are accomplished too which is where the figure comparison comes into play.

Is Rachel Alexandra substantially more talented than horses like Ruffian, Go For Wand, Silverbulletday and Winning Colors?  Definitely not.  They’re all in the same ballpark and would likely have traded wins with each other had they regularly competed against each other.  But her accomplishments as a 3 year old filly meet or exceed what any single one of them did over the course of a season.

In the final tally you have a horse who was as fast as any 3 year old filly in history and accomplished as much or more than any 3 yo filly in history.   In a single race I’m not so sure she could beat a handful of history’s top fillies, but when her ability is considered collectively with her accomplishments there’s no doubt she’s great and you’d be hard-pressed to say that any single 3 yo filly was better in a combined analysis – thereby making Rachel Alexandra the best 3 year old filly ever!

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Bottom line:  The Breeders’ Cup is broken, folks.  Not irreversibly, but it’s getting there.  The good thing is that it can be fixed in 3 simple steps.  Let’s fix it.

Since those in charge currently seem to be contemplating how to plan the event for the future I propose the following simple and easy ground rules to restore the event to its rightful place as a day that racing fans can truly look forward to:

1)  The Breeders’ Cup should not be a 2-day event. In this case two halves do NOT exceed one whole.  In fact, they seldom do.  I remember when Belmont used to run “Super Saturday” cards in the fall combining all of their major Grade 1 races into a single card.  They were exciting.  Then they tried to spread the races out over an entire weekend.  It didn’t work.  They turned into ordinary racing days with several stakes races run.  Racing isn’t popular enough anymore to support too many big days.  You need to hit it out of the park when it counts.  Most of the world could give a crap about the “Ladies Classic,” let alone the “Juvenile Fillies Turf.”  There’s simply no reason other than desperate economics (read: short term gain, long term pain) to try to stretch the event into a Friday afternoon.

Run the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday like they used to – with only the most important races.  Make that card so strong that the rest of the racing world (and some of the rest of the world as well) stops to pay attention – like they used to.  Only run races significant enough to be Grade 1′s – like they used to.  How pathetic is it that they now run Breeders’ Cup races that can’t even be called Grade 1′s with a straight face?  Isn’t there some saying about “if it ain’t broke…?”  Here’s another thought: If you draw a field where you can’t immediately tell if the race is being run on Breeders’ Cup day or a month later at Aqueduct when looking at the entrants and past performances, then you’ve done something seriously wrong and the race probably doesn’t deserve to be part of the Breeders Cup card!!!

2)  Let’s nix the marathon, turf sprint, dirt mile, juvenile turf, and juvenile fillies turf. None of these are championship events.  Look at the fields.  Look at the winners so far.  These are no elite races and the horses winning these races aren’t elite horses .  The only thing the Breeders Cup was missing was a filly & mare sprint.  That’s an Eclipse Award category and there are legit Grade 1 horses ready to run in such a race.  Keep it.  No one was asking for any of these other races.  They don’t fill any void.  None of these other races determine Eclipse Awards, draw G1 fields, or serve any legitimate purpose other than to waste purse money and serve as a desperate attempt to get a second day out of the BC by calling them Breeders’ Cup events.  Run these other events as non-Breeders’ Cup stakes races on the day before or day after if you must, but stop diluting the main event with this silliness that more resemble the Calder Festival of Racing where they run 2 furlong and 2 mile races simultaneously in opposite directions  than they do championship events where we’ve seen some of the greatest races in the history of the sport.

3)  No Breeders’ Cup can be run at a track that doesn’t have dirt. I’m sorry but it’s absolutely ridiculous to pass off an event as a determinant of champions when not a single dirt race is run.  This is America for god sakes – here we run on dirt!  Synthetics are a third surface and they need to be treated as such.  Last year you saw Eclipse voters ignore most of the Breeders’ Cup results for this reason.  This year, it’s gone a step further and many top horses are deliberately skipping the event because it’s on synthetics.  California rushed to judgment and installed synthetic courses throughout the state.  That’s their problem.  They made their bed and they should have to lie in it – but it doesn’t mean the rest of the sport has to suffer.  Perhaps we should create a separate Eclipse for synthetic horses (for at least as long as they last), but let’s bring these races back to a time where they actually mattered and actually represented a level playing field from which to settle rivalries and help determine year-end championships.

It’s time for drastic action because you can see the downward trend developing right before you.  In a matter of 2 years they have essentially torn down all of what they spent 2 decades building up.  The Breeders’ Cup is on a fast track towards being nothing more than a series of big money events with no other real value rather than the biggest day in racing and a series of “can’t miss” races (for the Eclipse contenders as well as the fans).

1 Day.  9 Championship races.  Dirt.  Not so hard, is it?!  All in favor, say I…

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The Breeders’ Cup Classic is often the defining race for Horse of the Year because of what it represents – the central meeting point for 3 year olds and older horse at a classic distance on the dirt.  It’s a race that everyone gears their campaigns toward so there are no excuses – a championship event.  Those factors are not present in this year’s event.  For starters, the race isn’t on dirt.  Some may want to bury their heads in the sand and pretend otherwise, but synthetics are a completely separate surface and most horses have different ability levels on each.  Some, like Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface bear little resemblance to dirt and, in fact, appear to favor turf ability and running styles more than dirt form. American racing is built around dirt.  That’s what we’re about and that’s what we reward in our year-end balloting.  Running a race on a non-dirt surface and calling it a “championship” or a ”Breeders’ Cup” race doesn’t make it any more meaningful or impactful or make it any more relevant a measure of dirt ability.  It’s not.  You simply cannot apply the same weight to a “championship” event run on Pro-Ride that you would to a normal Breeders’ Cup Classic run on dirt.

Further diluting the value of a Breeders’ Cup Classic win this year is the quality of the field – or lack thereof.  The 2009 handicap division is the weakest I can ever recall.  There are simply no elite older horses this year.  Horses like Macho Again and Bullsbay and Dry Martini would be also-rans in most years, not trading wins in major Grade 1 races.  It’s just mind-boggling to see major handicap races won with BSF’s barely breaking 100.  In fact, the highest Beyer speed figure recorded by an older male this entire year is a 111 (Rail Trip & Solar Flare).  That’s astounding.  That the Whitney was won by a horse who had never previously exceeded a 100 BSF pretty much says it all about this division.  Add to the fact that Rachel Alexandra and Sea The Stars won’t be in the field and it’s hard to argue that winning the Classic is particularly significant in any way other than purse value to the winning connections.  Yes – there are some good Europeans coming over (and they will probably win) but they are grass horses and this is closer to a grass race than a dirt race.  What it is not is a race that should be the primary determinant of the 2009 Horse of the Year.

With all of the above said, let’s take a quick look at the individual candidates:

RACHEL ALEXANDRA – Needs no introduction.  8-for-8 this year including 5 Grade 1′s and 3 G1 wins against males.  Yes she went to sidelines a month early, but she ran one of the most ambitious campaigns for a 3-year old filly in many years.  She beat males while encountering exceptionally difficult trips and pace scenarios and absolutely demolished her 3 yo filly counterparts – albeit weak ones.  Her 8 wins also took place over 7 different racetracks in 6 different states.  At every path her connections challenged her.  They traveled, they faced 3 yo males in the Preakness and Haskell, they faced older males in the Woodward.  That ambition need to be rewarded.  That mentality is what we need in racing these days in this era where it’s all too common to see top horses never face each other and avoid top competition except for a few select races each year.

SUMMER BIRD – He has matured into a very nice horse and has put together a solid resume.  It seems odd to say that a horse who wins the Belmont, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, & Breeders’ Cup Classic shouldn’t be Horse of the Year, but he shouldn’t.  There are 3 primary reasons why:

1. A Breeders Cup Classic win isn’t as significant as usual.  See above!

2. Summer Bird did absolutely nothing prior to the Belmont.  He was beaten 13 lengths in the Kentucky Derby and had only a Maiden win to his credit prior to the Belmont.  Should he win the BC Classic his record would be 9-5-1-1 with 4 Grade 1 victories.  Impressive but hardly exceptional.

3 – Most importantly, Rachel Alexandra blew Summer Bird away in the Haskell – beating him by 6.  Summer Bird has done nothing wrong, but his credentials with a win in the Classic certainly wouldn’t substantially exceed Rachel Alexandra’s – and in the face of otherwise similar accomplishments a decisive head-to-head win has to be the deciding factor.

ZENYATTA – I previously discussed her campaign and what a disservice her connections have done to her legacy by managing her so conservatively.  This is a horse whose campaign to date defines the concept of taking the path of least resistance.  She will run 5 times – all on synthetics – never leaving California, shying away from any matchups with Rachel Alexandra and never facing males until possibly the Classic.  Obviously if she doesn’t go in the Classic this is all a moot point, but even if she does it is definitely a case of too little too late.  All season long Zenyatta’s connections never looked for a challenge with their champion – and it wasn’t like they had to look very hard.  Having already proven that she was better than California’s older filly & mare contingent, there was no obvious reason to avoid races like the Hollywood Gold Cup or Pacific Classic.  Heck, even her stablemate Life Is Sweet who was on the same schedule at the time ran in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  NYRA desperately tried to arrange a meeting with Rachel Alexandra in the Beldame but her connections publicly shied away from that as well citing the value of the Breeders’ Cup as the meeting place for such an event.  That type of thinking cannot be rewarded.  The Breeders’ Cup is indeed the day to crown champions, but not at the expense of the entire rest of the year.

Bottom line is that even with a win in the Classic, Zenyatta would be 5-for-5 with 4 Grade 1 wins.  She’s had fewer wins than Rachel, fewer Grade 1 wins, and a far less impressive campaign overall.  Where Rachel Alexandra’s connections looked for challenges, Zenyatta’s connection avoided them.  From a public policy perspective you want to reward the connections who campaigned aggressively, not the ones who took the path of least resistance at every available turn.

Then there’s the head-to-head comparison.  If you look only at their races vs females, Rachel Alexandra is 5-for 5 while Zenyatta is 4-for-4.  Obviously Rachel faced inferior horses as a 3 yo filly, but she absolutely dominated her competition – winning races like the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose by 20 and 19 lengths.  Zenyatta meanwhile was life and death to beat Annaba’s Creation and won her races in a manner than was much more workmanlike than brilliant or fast.  Should she win this less-meaningful-than-usual Breeders’ Cup Classic it would certainly be an impressive accomplishment for Zenyatta’s legacy, but should that win really count more than a combination of wins in the Preakness, Haskell, and Woodward by a 3 year old filly?  Of course not.  At the end of the day Rachel’s campaign was simply better and more impressive in every way and is far more deserving of reward than Zenyatta’s.  Had Zenyatta run more than 5 times, thrown in a win on dirt or outside California, or another win against males, or shown interest in facing Rachel Alexandra when the powers that be were trying to set up the showdown, then maybe she’d have a case. But she didn’t.  Her connections never challenged her and at this point she’s trailing Rachel by a lot more ground than she could make up with a single Breeders’ Cup Classic victory – particularly one accomplished without beating her primary competition for the title.  Also keep in mind that if the racing season ended right now she wouldn’t even be # 2 in line and perhaps not even # 3 based on what she’s done to date.  It’s about accomplishments THIS YEAR, not reputation and legacy.

Normally the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the culmination of a year of major dirt races.  This year it is not.  It’s a watered-down event on a synthetic surface that plays closer to turf than dirt.  The championship dirt racing season in the US ended earlier this month for all intents and purposes…and at that finish line Rachel Alexandra is comfortably in front by any reasonable measure of comparison.

Rachel Alexandra is your 2009 Horse of the Year regardless of what happens in the Breeders’ Cup.

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For those who aren’t familiar with the sheets, they are “performance figures” which are essentially speed figures with adjustments for weight & ground loss along with some other items.  Thorograph & Ragozin are the competing brands.  Each horse has their career graphically represented on a “sheet” of paper in order to view patterns and form cycles.  They’re quite good and there’s a lot of work that goes into the numbers.

So here’s his Thorograph sheet:

Sea The Stars was essentially running in the 0 to 2 range in his last several starts (the lower the number, the faster the race).

So how does that rank?

Well it’s good.  Championship quality.  But that’s about it.  Nothing different than what other elite turf horses have run recently.

For comparative purposes:

* Gio Ponti’s 3 previous #’s this year going into the Turf Classic were 0.5, -0.5, 0.25

* Conduit ran a 0.5 winning last year’s BC Turf

* Eagle Mountain ran a 0 running 2nd in last year’s turf

* Soldier of Fortune ran 1′s in his 3 starts in Europe last year before running a 2 in the Breeders Cup.

* English Channel ran a -0.25 winning the 2007 BC Turf with 2.5, 0.25, 1, 1 before that.  The previous year he ran 0, 1, 0.75, 0.75, 0.75. 0.75, 2.

* Dylan Thomas ran 3.25, 1, 2.25, 0, 0, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2.25 working backward in 2007.

* Red Rocks ran a 0 winning the 2006 Breeders Cup Turf.

* Shirrocco ran a -0.5 winning the 2005 Breeders’ Cup Turf.

(all figures are from Thorograph)

Interesting?  I thought so!  Greatest ever?  Nah…

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