I love beating favorites and taking contrarian opinions, but sometimes the obvious answer is staring you right in the face. Super Saver benefited from a perfect trip to win a weak 2010 Kentucky Derby earning a slow speed figure. Obvious bet against next time out, right? But a closer look at the 2010 Preakness says that Super Saver is actually pretty good value at 9-to-5 or so.
Super Saver ran a pretty ordinary race in his debut in the Tampa Bay Derby when he wasn’t cranked up and then followed with a decent but umimpressive 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. Set for his best, he moved forward to win the Derby running a 104 BSF. He earned it under favorable circumstances, but why won’t he repeat that figure in the Preakness? He should find himself on or near the lead in a race with little speed. The Derby represented only a small forward move and from a pattern perspective he certainly figures to run a similar effort again and by all reports he’s doing very well since his Derby effort. So if he runs in the 102-105 range who can beat him? The only horse I can make a case for is Caracortado who is going synth to dirt with some decent efforts in California and a win on dirt in his debut.
I suppose Lookin At Lucky is an obvious horse off his trouble-filled trip in the Derby but I’m starting to wonder just how good this horse really is. He’s never run all that fast, seems to always find trouble, and is a question mark to me at longer distances. Plus he’ll be no value.
Bottom line: I see little reason why Super Saver won’t run a similar figure as he did in the Derby and if he does (no matter how slow it is by historical standards) he’ll be tough to beat. Throw in his tactical advantage and he’s a nice price at 9/5. I’ll be rooting for Caracortado as I’m alive for a nice double with him. Yawanna Twist and Aikenite are the next 2 that I’ll use. It would certainly be a shame to see a horse like Super Saver going for a shot at the crown considering he wouldn’t finish in the top half of the Derby field in some years, but this is a betting game and he’s value in the Preakness. Sometimes it just doesn’t pay to be a wiseguy!
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